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In about 2 months, the world rubber price suddenly increased from 130 yen / kg (1200 USD / tonne) to 188 yen / kg (1734 USD / t), corresponding to a 45% increase. in such a short time.
This is good news for Doan Nguyen Duc (Bau Duc), which has invested tens of thousands of billions to invest in rubber plantations covering 40,000 hectares. Southern Laos.
Doan Nguyen Duc began investing in rubber trees in Attapeu since 2008 with a total area of about 40,000 hectares. Five years later, the first rubber plantations have provided latex and so far the area of operation reaches about 18,000 hectares.
Over the past 10 years, Bau Anh Hoang Anh Gia For the capital to pour rubber is very large, with an investment cost of 1 ha of rubber is $ 5,000, where the pressure drop irrigation compensation technology makes $ 1,000. In addition, there are huge investments in factories, surrounding infrastructure …
The price of rubber has increased by 45% in the last 2 months.
The risk that some people may expect is the rubber price deplorable from $ 5,500 / t, which dropped to $ 1,100 at the beginning of 2016, and remained low in subsequent years. The trend, Bau Duc has made a lot of success in many areas, from stone to real estate to hydroelectric power. However, the investment story in agriculture is always a big risk.
Following the sale of the real estate segment, Bau Duc has focused on investments in agriculture with a total volume of up to 70% in this area. Chances are bright, as only the rubber price is 2,000–3,000 USD per ton, Bau Duc companies have a big profit, not to mention harvesting, selling timber also gets a lot of money.
The project is considered to be quite good and sustainable without the unprecedented fall in rubber prices.
After 5 years, the total amount spent by Attapeu reached $ 1 billion, but the cash flow was rather slow. Bau Duc shares also reached record low levels, and Bau Duc companies had to agree on debt restructuring with about 10 banks.
In 2018, a handshake of billions of Trana Ba Duonga with Thaco helped Bau Duc companies get money to continue investing in the construction of a leading agricultural empire in Southeast Asia. Thaco will have 35% of the capital Bau Duc HAGL Agrico.
In fact, Germany's huge rubber garden investment project is a very good plan. The HAGL orientation is not wrong, but Bau Duc is black if it is in line with price cuts and cash flow imbalances, although assets are still very large.
The strong increase in rubber prices in the last two months promises that HAGL Agrico and Bau Duc HAGL will have high revenues and high profit margins in 2019. t
The recent strong recovery in rubber prices is due to a decline in the supply of rubber due to adverse weather conditions and national policies to reduce territory and demand for white gold has risen again.
Bau Duc and Tran Ba Duong aspire to build a Vietnamese agricultural empire.
Another important reason is the fall of the US-China trade war after the presidential administration Donald Trump had a 3-day meeting in Beijing, where there were many good signals.
In a recent statement, the Chinese Minister of Commerce said that China would be waging trade wars with the US in 2019. The first direct talks between both sides, according to President Donald Trump and President Trung Quoc Xi Jinping, promised a three-month ceasefire to be recognized as a "platform" to tackle common trade problems.
Much of the trade between the US and China will help the Chinese economy avoid a slowdown, and this will certainly be good news for the Bau Duc rubber business.
China is considered the main market for Bau Duc rubber. Although it is confirmed that it is not based on the Chinese market, Bau Duc also confirmed that if China ceased or reduced purchases, companies would face difficulties, at least by pushing interest-free prices.
China's economic downturn will make it difficult for many companies to export raw materials to that country.
Warm signals back in the US-China relationship are blowing fresh winds in global financial markets. However, these good relationships can be saved for a long time.
In a recent forecast, the World Bank (WB) has reduced its global economic growth forecast to 2.9% this year, compared with a 3% increase in 2018. Thus, the motivation for growth The world economy is losing ground over the course of the year, and this year the road may become rough.
The world economy is confronted with uncertainties related to the slowdown in trade liberalization, multilateral cooperation such as the G20, APEC … less. Donald Trump's commercial policy remains strong. Mr Trumps always believed that it was a measure to secure the benefits of the US economy, and that was also a key prerequisite for the re-election of the current US President.
The war between the US and China is focused solely on the economy – trade. In the medium and long term, it is likely that these relationships will worsen in many other ways. The world economy can create new shocks.
In the stock market (stock market), liquidity remained low. The VN-Index exceeded the resistance level of 900 points, but was rather weak as investors were still cautious, given that there is no really positive market information.
The stock market grew mainly due to stock depreciation and investors were less concerned when the US stock market recovered.
Some powerful pillars like Vinamilk, Vietjet, Bao Viet, Petrolimex …
Some securities companies are cautious in their forecasts.
Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) pointed out that the VN-Index has turned against 903-908 points. During the first sessions of the following week, the index may occur by preventing shaking pressure. The index support area is 885-890 points.
The CIS said the market sentiment was positive when the VN-Index closed over 900 points. However, the correction trend is still prevalent over a long period of time, so investors should be cautious and unnoticed.
Closing the trading session 11/1, VN-Index increased by 4.41 to 902.71; The HNX index increased by 0.09 points to 101.87 points. The Upcom-Index increased by 0.16 points to 53.18 points. Market liquidity reached 160 million units, which is 3.2 trillion US dollars.
Follow H. Tu
VietnamNet
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