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The Fed's dismissal leaves only one big sign for the stock market



It is afraid that in December the Federation will end the economy with too many interest rate hikes, as well as concerns about trading wars and the slowdown in China's economy. Concerns about the recession caused the stocks that were sold before the sale and after the Christmas crescendo.

The Chinese economy has weakened, although Beijing is using both monetary and fiscal incentives to try and get started. US companies, such as Nvidia and Apple, have said that China's revenue has deteriorated due to lower sales, and analysts believe that if trading issues are resolved, a stock market rally could be a hurry.

Luke Tylie, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said that the slowdown in China's economic and trade wars is market-related.

"We believe we still have a stable economy. We expect a 2.5% increase. For the US statement, the proposed tariffs and the escalation of tariffs and countermeasures between the US and China, they would be enough material to change our view of the US economy and growth. continues, "he said." Resolving these tariffs is important for the future. "

Tulley also calls for another government to shut down and the debt ceiling negotiations as risk markets, although some strategists do not believe that President Donald Trump would allow the government to close the economy again because of both public sentiment and harm.

Markets have hoped to see some positive developments from two days in the high-level trade talks that began on Wednesday between Chinese Vice President Liu Him and the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. The negotiators are working to reach an agreement before the deadline of 2 March, when the US will raise tariffs of $ 200 billion for Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent.

"We will have a little chance of agreeing this week and there will be a negative flow of news if there is not enough structural reform for the Chinese to meet the US sales representative Robert Lighthizer," said Dan Clifton, Head of Policy Research. He said Lighthizer was skeptical that China would offer sufficient structural reforms to prevent a rise in tariffs in March.

In six years, China has offered to increase US imports of agriculture, energy and some industrial goods to mitigate trade gaps. The US is trying to increase US intellectual property protection and accuses China of cybercrime. As a result of the deeper friction, the US has filed a complaint against the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei with bank fraud, counterfeiting and theft in state secrets, and claimed that its CFO misled the US financial institutions about its dealings with Iran.

"Our feeling is that China's offer will go a step further this week, offering specific deadlines that will ease foreign investment restrictions and protect intellectual property," said Clifton. "There may also be enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance. These proposals lack state-owned companies, so Lighthizer believes that tariffs should continue until the Chinese feel painful enough to carry out further reforms."

Clifton expects the negotiations to lead to further tariff elimination, but not necessarily to the removal of current tariffs.


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