Posted on November 14, 2018
or Zachary Shahan
November 14, 2018 With Zachary Shahan
Perhaps it has been the longest thing I've ever done to create a monthly sales report in the US, and this may be the hardest. We had a strong understanding of how Tesla's 3rd generation production and delivery took place in the third quarter, but due to the intense progress towards the end of the quarter to the success of Model 3, and at the end of the quarter, in the hands of customers, it was difficult to measure output in the coming weeks – much of October.
The problem, which seems already frightening, was complicated by the fact that on November 1, Elon Musk noted that we should keep in mind that the company in the first half of the quarter produced cars for US East Coast and foreign shipments. Fine and dandy model S and model X, but what does this mean for Model 3? Does Tesla already produce a significant number of model 3 in other markets? The assumption is that it will not start until the first quarter of 2019, but it is hard to know without giving more information about the consumer demand for finishing that Tesla is currently producing.
Based on the evidence that only a small part of Model 3 goes abroad and Tesla introduced the average range of Model 3, which may have stimulated a sufficient number of new orders in the US, we assume that Model 3 will still be sold only In the US and Canada in the fourth quarter.
In general, we think that deliveries fell in October compared to November – in order to reduce staffing and re-establish supply pipelines, but we did not conclude that there were array reduction.
Our estimates include a lot more to note, including Bloomberg and Teslike (and the examination of the Teslike survey population has changed compared to Tesla's customer base), but let's have a meta discussion and get into numbers that are almost entirely from the automakers themselves. (Note: Tesla's sales trends compared to the January-October competition were published in a separate article, "Tesla model 3 = 18% of sales of small and medium-sized luxury cars in the first 10 months of 2018.")
In order to avoid the events, you can see that according to this month's estimate, the Tesla Model 3 was the seventh best-selling car in the United States in October.
If we judged we were a little more aggressive, the 3rd model would have been # 6. And if we were considerably pessimistic, it would be # 8. It seems unlikely that it is higher than # 6 or lower than # 8, but both there is a possibility.
Simply looking for a small and medium-sized luxury car, the bar chart looks quite different, because Model 3 completely reduces competition.
The pie chart will follow the best visual model of the model, showing a 3% impressive 30% share.
To make it fairer and, in my opinion, to be useful, I group all small and medium-sized car sales into each of the cars of this class. Model 3 still played a leading role.
(Note: Jaguar and Alfa Romeo cars are not included here because these cars do not submit model model reports, but both are located at the bottom of the chart.)
Looking at the sale of luxury cars altogether (but ignoring the sale of SUVs / trucks), Tesla once again took first place. To be precise, this race is between the Model 3 + model S and all cars sells each of the other luxury car brands in the US.
BMW and Mercedes-Benz, on the other hand, had a good uninterrupted race for the topo of this class, but Tesla has now taken them right. In total, based on our Tesla estimates, Tesla in October took up 28% of the pie, BMW 23% and Mercedes-Benz 20%.
As for the general luxury car brand sales (car + terrain vehicles and portable vehicles), in which only three models on the market, Tesla sat in October # 4. Though, a slightly more aggressive estimate would have left it on the pedestal.
We expect Tesla to have a similar figure in November, but in December, another month in sales. Together, this could be a tight race for # 1 spot on this market in the fourth quarter. Will Tesla take gold, silver or bronze home?