Thursday , July 7 2022

Congressional Race: Top House Race Watch 2018 Midterms Election Night


We are closely watching several district types designed to control the House of Representatives. As part of the CBS News / YouGov 2018 Battleground Tracker, we have identified competing home-coastal races that survey voters across the country, and then use the statistical model to evaluate each congressional race and estimate how much space each side prefers to win. We have organized these areas in groups based on their demographics, voting history and opportunities to beat.

Less than a week before the day of election, here are the groups of districts to be visited, as well as a few illustrative races in each group.

The main camp's race in mid-2018

The main camp rallies

Rich suburbs

CA 45, CA 48, CA 49, CO 6, GA 6, IL 6, KS 3, MI 11, MN 3, NE 2, NJ 7, NJ 11, OH 12, PA 1, TX 7, TX 32, VA 10

This large group of affluent, suburban districts is crucial for the Democrats to repeat the House. Although these districts were all elected as Republicans in 2016, they cast a majority vote for President Hillary Clinton (her average vote is 51%). On average, 46% of the population are educated in college, a group that has been largely opposed to the Democrats this year. According to our model, most scenarios, from which the democrats take the house, also win them in several competitions.

CO 6: Republicans believe that some powerful historic companies, such as GOP Rep. Mike Coffman, is able to impose national storms, experiencing difficult elections and retaining the image of a partisan policy in their areas. However, Coffman is opposed to well-funded opponent Jason Krow, Aurora District, where Hillary Clinton carried 10 points. It looks like a pretty tough storm of Republicans to come here.

GA 6: The Republicans proved that they could hold one of the most educated districts in the country when Karen Hendel won the special election of the last year's house in the 6th congress district of Georgia. The Republicans have to prove that they can continue to hold such positions for two years, Donald Trump, during the presidency, and this time, when the competition is no longer the focus of the state.

Blue neck or field

AR 2, IA 1, IL 12, KS 2, ME 2, NY 22, PA 8, PA 10, WA 3, WA 5, WV 3

Donald Trump was mostly made up of white, working districts in 2016, often with high profits (his average vote: 58 percent). Democrats have begun in these districts recent special electionsdamaging their hopes for flipping up some this year (although they only really got one House specific in Pennsylvania). Although in most of these races Republicans are favored, some of them look like completely abandoned.

IA 1: Whilst White, Working Group Elections Flocked to Trump 2016, Democrats believe that the right candidate can win them back. Barack Obama took over Iowa 1st congress district in 2012, but the area later turned to Trump. National rep Abby Finkenauer, the pipefitter welder's daughter, believes her local roots and workgroup support will help her win the historic Rod Blum. Indeed, these races are likely to shift from Republicans to democracy in the middle of this group.

KS 2: Sam Brownback is no longer a governor, but he has left a legacy that has become a bit of a headache for a Kansas republican. Democrat Paul Davis previously nominated District 2 (when he lost the 2014 Governor's Race). He is now acting rep. Lynn Jenkins has just opened a seat against Republican Steve Watkins, who is in the press to stay in hot water supply.

Impact of ethnic minorities

CA 10, CA 21, CA 25, CA 39, FL 26, FL 27, NM 2, TX 23

These are places with a large minority population, especially Latino (which accounts for 47% of the district's population on average). Most are the majority of minority areas that Hillary Clinton took over. The big question is whether Latino and other unscrupulous voters do not meet the historic medium-term models and turn out to be large enough to turn these seats from red to blue.

CA 21: Despite the fact that he acts as a Democrat in the constituency of the constituency of majority minorities, brought by Hillary Clinton, T.J. Coke is disobedient to his rivals against Republican Repo David Valadao. Cox has started as a local employee and believes he will have the resources to drive out the incumbent, but there are better opportunities for Democrats elsewhere in this group and in California.

CA 39: On paper California, area 39 should be a lightweight Democrat victory: it's an open seat in a racist, diverse, suburban area, driven by Hillary Clinton. However, Republican candidate Young Kim, who was born in Korea and earlier worked with a visiting GOP Rep. Ed Royce has led a strong campaign and kept in touch with the prominent Asian and American community. Meanwhile, Democrat Gil Cisneros came out of the front with some bumps and bumps, although he is also the winner of the lottery who can get into his personal possessions before the election day.

FL 27: This race was originally a gift to the Democrats when the Republican Republican Ilean Ros-Lehtinen decided not to move in the district of Miami district, where voters have distributed their tickets by voting for Democratic presidential candidates for years. Republican candidate Maria Elvira Salazar, the local Spanish TV anchor, has called for many voters in this vast Cuban area, which has led to a tougher struggle than many Democrats have been waiting for here. However, Democrats are still keen on turning these seats.

NM 2: Democrats may not normally place their seats on the area from which this republic comes, but they have a consortium candidate, 33-year-old Xochitl Torres-Small, who has moved away from the national party. She also has an opportunity to work in an open space, representing the republican republic. Yvette Herrell with a huge challenge.

Swingable Suburbs

AZ 2, IL 14, KY 6, MI 8, MN 2, NJ 3, NY 19, NY 24, OH 1, PA 7, PA 17, VA 2, VA 7, WA 8

Many of our model simulations are shifting from republican to democracy in these average income, and mostly in the white areas. Hillary Clinton did some of them and approached others (average number: 48 percent). Some districts include cities, as well as suburban or outlying areas that could help Democrats. Their most likely victories here are held in open competitions, four of them, and not from those who leave the historic operators. If most of them remain in red, this is a sign that the Republicans could hang on to control.

AZ 2: Rep Martha McSally chose to run the Senate instead of re-electing in Arizona's 2nd congress district, which could have been a clever political step, given that Donald Trumpt took over the country, but not her district. The Republicans believed that the president of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, Lea Marquez Peterson, had personally appeals that could defend the trend in the district, but it seems more and more that Democratic candidate, former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, will return to Parliament building.

KY 6: Democrat Amy McGrath's challenge to the Republican Republic Andy Barr could help answer a few questions: will the ancestral Democrats return to the party after Republican (at least federal office) voting for years? In addition, do national stardom turn into district-level success?

Longshot Suburb

FL 15, IA 3, IL 13, MI 6, NC 9, NC 13, NY 11, UT 4

They are geographically the largest combination of suburban and outskirts with Republican historic operators (three open). They are largely left to the republicans in our simulations, but they are still important that they should be wary, because some could turn the Democrats into electoral elections.

FL 15: These races came to the battlefield late, which gives the Democrats a benefit, thanks to the benefits of attracting their funds. While Republicans defend dozens of places across the country, distributing their resources, Democrat Chris Cairnson is freed from a republican republic by open competition. Ross Spano, while governor candidate Andrew Gillum motivated non-filters and new voters across Florida.

UT 4: Utah is a conservative state divided into presidential posts. Mitt Romney is probably a cruise for victory in the Senate, but Rep. Rep. 4th Utah District. Mia Love is defending, thanks to a polarizing president and a credible democratic race for the mayor of Salt Lake, Ben McAdams.

Democratically open seats

MN 1, MN 8, NV 3, NV 4, NH 1

Some of the democratic open seats are some Republicans who have a good surprise, thus minimizing potential losses in some of the above groups. President Trump carried everything except one of these areas, placing a large reserve in the Minnesota areas, promoting Republican House candidates' expectations.

MN 1: Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Dan Feehan, was not an easy time trying to open up Democrats in Minnesota 1. If he succeeds in winning, Feehan will show the profile of individual candidates at least at Presidential Short, located in the White House.

MN 8: This district of Duluth is one of the only Republicans to take over this year, although it looks increasingly good. Former St Louis Territory Commissioner Pete Stauber has used a frank race in Trump County, which is good, but former Democratic State Rep. Joe Radinovich struggles to stop.

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