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Silence and Gold from

© Reuters. – World markets continue to grow, until 20:00 Moscow time, 500 added 0.9%, reaching the level of October 26 last year, that is, almost defeating the losses of the last recession. Boeing shares (NYSE 🙂 increased by 5.2% on serious news: sales and earnings in 2108 far exceeded analysts' expectations, the company also said that in 2019 it plans to deliver 900 commercial aircraft to 806 in 2019. t Apple (NASDAQ 🙂 shares rose 4.3% after a rapid increase in service sales, and its CEO Tim Kuck said the trade tensions between the US and China had fallen.

However, from where Apple came from such information, it is not entirely clear: the latest news on the American and Chinese topics was the introduction of formal charges against the United States against Huawei, which can hardly help "reduce tension".

Market growth is partly attributable to the continued hopes of easing rhetoric after the Fed meeting that started today. Economic news is not very good: according to ADP, the number of US employees in the non-agricultural sector rose by 213 thousand in December compared to 180.9 thousand. Another economy would be satisfied, but in the US it means the risk that it will continue to reduce unemployment from record low rates, leading to increasing pressure on the labor market. At the same time, real estate sales are declining, with a weak sales index falling by 2.2% in December, up by 0.8%, falling for the third consecutive month. Many experts point out that the Fed is deadlocked: the continued tightening of monetary policy will seriously damage the market and may not be conducive to the economy as a whole. At the same time, refusing to raise rates will look like the recognition of economic problems and the concession of pressure from the US leader, that is, it may jeopardize the image of an independent regulator – and worse than not increasing at the wrong time. However, it would not be fortunate, but the misfortune helped: the government's "shatdaun" has delayed many economic reports, and the Fed's leadership has a formal reason to remain silent.

Oil price rises due to news that US stocks of raw materials rose just 0.9 million barrels last week, forecasting 3.1 million barrels. The fact that it is still growth does nothing. True, the fact that petrol reserves in the country fell by 2.24 million barrels, with a growth forecast of 2.8 million, is the first drop over the last nine weeks, is really encouraging.

Another factor for growth is the continuation of the Venezuelan crisis. Today, the authorities arrested the accounts of President Juan Guaydo, who proclaimed himself president, and forbade him to go abroad, which was an obvious response to the right to dispose of government and Venezuelan central bank assets in US bank accounts. With 20.40 Moscow time futures contracts increased by 1.8% to $ 62.3.

This situation seems to be very positive for the Russian economy. Only in addition to private funds (for example, private funds, such as Rosneft funds (MCX :)) can be considered, about $ 17 billion in debt to state-owned supplies, mainly weapons, is stuck. And while experts often explain that "in fact these weapons were still written down and the real number should be divided by 20", but it is still unpleasant. On the eve of the Russian Deputy Minister of Finance, Sergei Storchak admitted that it might be difficult to get debt from Venezuela. And today, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak admitted to his problems that Russian companies might have problems.

And today Bloomberg, referring to two sources, reported that Caracas airport had Russian Boeing, where the authorities of the Central Bank of Venezuela intend to export 20 tons of gold worth about $ 840 million, or about one fifth of the country's gold reserves. If this report turns out to be true and the current Venezuelan official President Nicolas Maduro is losing power, then it is no surprise that Russia and Russian companies may have problems in resolving their new leadership. It should be noted that the attempt to evacuate the gold reserve is a rather strong indication of Maduro's readiness for such a result. The Russian authorities denied the involvement of the aircraft. Obviously, someone in Russia, Venezuela turned out to be more expensive than Russian debts – if this message is true again.

Meanwhile, the Russian market, like the weed, continues to grow to what is happening. The MosBirzh index, calculated in rubles, updated the historical maximum of 2513.77 points and increased by 0.54% at the end of the day. The rise of the index due to the rise of the ruble increased by 0.64%. So, when the ruble weakens again, the MosBirzy index will still have a large margin for new records.

In fact, the ruble is stubbornly looking under the 66th sign. Today, until 19:00 in Moscow, the dollar has fallen by 13 kopecks. up to 65.92 rubles. In addition to all of the above, in favor of the ruble – the weakness of the dollar, rising oil prices and other things, the seasonal factor continues to work. "Seasonality still persists, the market has slept in the first quarter, imports are falling, and export earnings, whose peak falls at the end of the year, continue to flow – that is, the currencies are larger than the market can digest. It will end by April-May. If nothing happens because of oil and sanctions, then February is likely to be calm, this trend will continue, ”says Oleg Solntsev, Senior Expert at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and the Short-Term Foresight Center.

Given the continuing interest in the ruble, the Ministry of Finance has fully invested 25 billion rubles in OFZ. – However, it reduced the volume of supply, of course, given that the previous attempt to grant 35 billion rubles at once. was not very successful. "We have been placed on the market, demanding good demand, mostly buying local investors, there is a great demand, between a sharp ruble, the expected interruption of interest rates from the Fed and the preservation of global investor interests in developing countries. The activity of non-residents is now smaller as they are more afraid of sanctions, ”says BCS senior analyst Sergei Suverov. "It can take several weeks, and it's hard to plan later because Russia's action in the Venezuelan conflict can speed up the development of the subject with sanctions."

(Text prepared by Daniel Gelobanov)

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