Presidential elections are coming to Ukraine. And each new candidate first talks about how he will solve the problem of Donbass and the end of the war.
This question most interested Ukrainians – it says polls.
And if very few people pay attention to traditional candidates' rhetorical promises ("investments", "wage increases"), the Donetsk and Lugansk themes are a litmus test. After all, without detention in the region, there will be no clear economic growth and investment. So the position on Donbor is essential to understand whether the candidate's victory is a real change.
"The State" has found out what the main opponents of the head of state are talking about.
What is written in the Minsk agreements and what is actually happening
The main conciliation plan is the so-called Minsk 2015 agreements, which were approved by the UN Security Council.
On the one hand, they provide for the removal of ceasefire and heavy weapons from the demarcation line. On the other hand, the Constitution has a special status for the uncontrolled part of Donbass (local authorities form the courts themselves, the prosecutor's office, the 'militia militia' units, determine the status of the Russian language and have separate relations with the Russian regions) and the amnesty for the separatist movement in the political part of the Minsk agreements).
At the same time, the complete restoration of Ukraine's sovereignty over the territory (controlling the border with Russia) should start immediately after the local elections and should be completed with the entry into force of the Constitution as a special status.
That is, the main condition for the peaceful reintegration of Donbass under the Minsk Agreements is the execution of the political part of Ukraine.
Ukrainian government tactics – war seems to be there, but no war
At the same time, official Kiev from 2015 really sabotaged this process.
Amendments to the Constitution on special status were adopted at first reading, but then placed on the shelf. For the current government of Ukraine, it is useful to continue the current situation – if there is no big war (and therefore no new shameful boats and many thousands of losses) – but there is a war. Therefore, you can always say that "during the war, commanders only criticize the traitors." And, at the same time, earning a bloated defense budget and smuggling through the line.
And in order not to give up the Minsk Agreements directly, Kiev put forward the condition that the implementation of the political part is possible only after the border has been transferred to the control of Ukraine (or, alternatively, the establishment of international forces over it and the entire territory of DNR / LNR) Moscow and the separatists do not want to go, believes that in this case the Ukrainian authorities will simply organize the sweeping of the territory and will not have a special status and amnesty.
Therefore, the negotiations have halted so far. And Poroshenko is quite satisfied with this situation for the above reasons. And the return of Donbass to the future, the Ukrainian authorities are unlikely to engage in the Minsk agreements, but with hypothetical shocks in Russia, under which it will be possible to regain control of Donetsk and Lugansk with military means. Or the fact that Russia has accumulated western sanctions in the yoke and she is leaving Donbass. And of course you can wait forever.
The only way to achieve a rapid peace in Donbah and its reintegration into Ukraine is to implement the political part of the Minsk agreements. But Poroshenko and Co are not ready to go (including because he is not interested in taking part in the election of several million Donbas opposition voters).
As well as other leading candidates – Yulia Tymoshenko and Anatoly Gritsenko.
For example, Gritsenko believes that Donbass uncontrolled areas can be returned within five years. But there is no condition now.
"We have prepared our diplomatic balance plan for solving these problems through a military police mission, etc." But there are no political circumstances, and what is happening now, only complicates things, a politician in an interview with Dmitry Gordon said.
Tymoshenko at the Congress proclaimed essentially the same as Poroshenko. According to him, to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine, the new government will have to strengthen the diplomatic front, expand the Budapest Plus talks and establish a modern army in accordance with NATO standards.
This means that both politicians are not talking about the procedure laid down in the Minsk agreements. And their words show that the return of the region is an uncertain process. It is only clear that both Tymoshenko and Gritsenko will ask the West for more pressure on Russia. However, the same is now Poroshenko.
In addition, the support team for both candidates (again, as well as the current president) interprets any concessions to Russia regarding the compromise on Donba as a betrayal of national interests.
However, Vladimir Zelensk talks about peace and talks with the Russians. However, judging by the speed with which he denied his business in Russia and usually any relationship with Moscow, he is unlikely to be able to fulfill the political part of the Minsk agreements because he is afraid to take on the "patriotic society" anger.
Donbass autonomy – what it is and why
Of all the candidates who retain the chance to reach the second round, only Yuri Boyko and his supportive opposition platform for life support their political part in Minsk and negotiate peace with Donetsk, Lugansk and Russia.
On the last opposition platform meeting on Tuesday, January 29, one of the leaders of this political force, Victor Medvedch, announced the details of the peace plan.
"We have to agree on a" quadrilateral "- in Kiev, Donetsk, Lugansk and Moscow. Our peace plan involves the creation of an autonomous region of Donetsk in Ukraine, we propose amendments to the Constitution that will strengthen this status," said Medvedch.
Donbass's autonomy is an important point that complements the Minsk agreements. They had two unresolved points.
The first is that it registered 'local elections in certain districts of the Donetsk and Lugansk districts', then the local authorities elected for them will receive extended powers under the 'special status'. However, local governments are, by and large, urban and district councils. The Minsk agreement does not determine who will actually manage the entire region, which will receive such a broad self-government.
The creation of the Autonomous Region of Donetsk solves this problem.
The second question was related to the fact that the Minsk agreements related to "certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions". According to logic, this is the current territory of DNR / LC. At the same time, it is clear that the normal economic activity of these territories (not to mention their recovery) is impossible except for the rest of the Donbas (which was created as one economic complex).
It would therefore be appropriate to grant a special status to the Donba. What after the war could ensure a quick rebirth. From this point of view, it is perfectly logical to create an autonomous region on a bi-regional scale.
And formally, it also does not contradict the Minsk treaties, according to which the "list of individual regions" determines the decision of the Verkhovna Rada (and may theoretically include the territory of all two regions).
At the same time, it is clear that such ideas can only be implemented if the configuration of the Ukrainian authorities changes completely. And not only in presidential elections, but also in parliament (autumn 2019).
Will this happen – see the end of the year. Then it will be clear whether Ukraine will have real opportunities to quickly achieve peace and the reintegration of Donbass.