Some results of the previous week. increased from 2406.50 p. to 2444.45, and – from 1118.03 p. to 1148.75 pages. The EUR-USD pair rose from $ 1,1398 to $ 1,1464. USD-RUB declined from 67.72 to 66.88 and EUR-RUB declined from 77.30 to 76.70. increased from $ 57.06 to $ 60.48. The US broad market index rose from 2531.94 pages. Up to 2596.26. Page
After the Christmas bear race, the markets calmed down slightly. China and the United States have found strength to discuss trade issues, though not with US-affected corporations. The Fed begins to report that the rate increase is not a principle and can be stopped. For almost two years, Donald Trump has successfully fought against the Democratic attacks, which stopped Russia from seeing the coast in attack. In addition, the consistent fulfillment of campaign promises makes Trump the chief candidate for the next US presidential election. The domestic market is also not all bad. The oil is out of the market, and it sells over $ 60 in Brent. However, it comes from the corporate reports of the winter period, and they will be the results of last year. Accordingly, the importance of financial results increases in size. However, macroeconomic statistics play an important role in forecasting the performance of central banks.
Japan will be on Monday when the majority will be held. China is expected to publish trade balance data. In December, exports are expected to grow by only 3% compared to 5.4% in November and imports by 5% compared to 3% in November. The trade balance may reach $ 51.53 billion compared to $ 44.71 billion in November. Germany will share the updated statistics on wholesale prices. Industrial production statistics will be conducted in the Eurozone. It is expected to decrease by 1.5% in November and by 2.3% in annual terms. The American segment of the auction is expected to be the next speech by Fed Chairman J. Powell.
Japan will start on Tuesday, when preliminary calculations for engineering orders will be published in December. France will publish its first estimate of GDP in the fourth quarter, which may be very unexpected due to the December turmoil. German GDP may also slow down growth due to the general situation in Europe. In the United Kingdom, the vote on the draft agreement on withdrawal from the European Union. So we are going to increase the pound sterling. In the US, there may be some trade balance data. The negative balance is expected to fall to $ 54 billion from $ 55.5 in November. Producer prices in the US could remain at 2.5% in December, although the increase in core demand could rise to 2.9% from 2.7% in November. The New York Fed (Empire State Index) production activity index could accelerate growth to 11.25 p. From page 10.9 Kansas FRB Head Esther George will also speak in the evening.
We start on Wednesday with an API night report on US crude oil and oil reserves. Japan will update engineering order data in November. In China there will be statistics on house prices. There is inflation data in the UK. Consumer prices are expected to fall to 2.2% in December, up from 2.3% in November. US-designed retail statistics. It is planned to rise by 0.2% in December, but expectations may turn out to be more modest if we remember successful online store reports. In the evening, a report on the housing market from NAHB, the US Department of Energy report on stocks, and then the Fed's sand book.
N. Kashari, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, will speak on Thursday evening. Australia has data on the sale of new housing and mortgage loans. However, the most important thing on this day is the first assessment of China's GDP in the fourth quarter. The economy in the Middle Kingdom is expected to decrease its annual growth rate to 6.4% from 6.5% in the previous quarter. In the euro area, inflation will be adjusted to December, which is likely to remain at 1.6%. In the United States, a report on new structures and permits is planned for December. In addition, there will be traditional data on primary unemployment benefit applications and the traditional annual index of production of the Philadelphia Reserve Bank in January, which may rise to 10.0 p. Then a report on the sale of new housing and gas reserves.
Friday will begin with inflation statistics in Japan, but most likely it will not be pleasing to the Japanese bank, as growth is expected to slow down. In addition, Japan's industrial production in November. In the afternoon, the IEA forecast for the oil market will take place. Retail statistics will appear in the UK. In the United States, statistics on the Fed's industrial production, which could rise by 0.2% in December, will be published. The consumer confidence index of Michigan University will appear during the evening. And finally, the day will close Baker's Hughes report on active platforms. In Russia, it is planned to publish monthly GDP and trade balance on this day. NLMK will publish the results for the fourth quarter and 2018.
Asian markets met a new week. China reports that exports decelerated growth to 7.1% in 2018 compared to 7.9% in 2017. Imports increased by 12.9% compared to 15.9% a year earlier. It should be noted that the trade surplus with the United States reached a record $ 323.32 billion, if we take data for December, then the picture seems rather bleak. Exports declined by 4.4% in December and imports by 7.6%. Meanwhile, the surplus reached $ 57.06 billion, so the statistics from the PRC proved to be negative for both developed markets and developing countries. 9:00 Moscow time – 26243.96 points (-1.59%), – 2535.95 points (-0.70%).
The PRC statistics also put pressure on oil, although Chinese imports became the second largest in December. According to customs data, daily shipments were 10.31 million barrels, which is slightly less than the November record. Throughout 2018, oil imports increased by 10.1% to 9.24 million barrels per day. The increase in imports of natural gas was even more impressive, rising by 31.9% to 90.39 million tonnes in 2018. However, this is not enough for the markets because the economic slowdown due to trade wars can make the next year less optimistic. Meanwhile, the drop in oil quotes at the end of 2018 is beginning to rethink the plans of American oil workers. According to Baker Hughes, in the week ending January 11, the number of active oil platforms in the US fell by 4 units to 873 units. And a little about gold. Metal is still very good for recovering market instability, negotiating close to $ 1,300 per troy ounce. SPDR Gold Trust reserves rose slightly by 797.71 tons last week. By 9:00 Moscow Time Brents – $ 59.8 (-1.12%) – $ 50.98 (-1.18%) – $ 1292.1 (+ 0.20%) – $ 5805.89 (- 1, 07%), nickel – $ 11,395 (-0.57%).
decreased by 0.12% to 95.63 pages. By 9:00 Moscow time EUR-USD – $ 1.148 (+ 0.12%), GBP-USD – $ 1.285 (+ 0.14%), USD-JPY – 108.11 (-0.38%).
The domestic market is still experiencing positive dynamics, but at the beginning of the year growth was mainly related to foreign markets and oil recovery. New statistics from China may also have a negative impact on Russian assets. In the US, various attempts to accuse Trump of co-operation with Moscow are continuing. Accordingly, a combination of economic and political factors can lead to a decline in Russian indices at the beginning of the week. The ruble must also be checked by resuming currency purchases on the free market within the framework of the budget rules. In the long term, the accumulation of reserves is positive, but in the short term it creates excessive demand for currency. That is why at the beginning of this week the ruble will be under pressure.