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"All social planning is based on the size of the population, but also on the age structure and it changes significantly in a way that has not yet been clarified," said George Leeson, Executive Director of the Oxford Aging Population Institute
The BBC.
The magazine published the Weset Metrics and Assessment Institute (IHME) study at the University of Washington, Seattle
Lancet and compares public health in the world from 1950 to 2017.
Almost half of the world In countries such as Europe and North America and South America, there are not enough children to save their population. Something that can have serious consequences if communities have more "grandparents" than grandchildren.
The result was a "big surprise" for researchers, writes BBC.
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Since birth in 1950, the world has decreased by almost half: from an average of 4.7 children per woman to 2.4 children per woman in 2017. But the differences are large, writes researchers. In Africa and Asia, childbirth continues to grow with middle-aged women in Niger, which feeds seven children throughout their lives.
According to IHME, Cyprus is the poorest country in the world – the average Cypriot woman gives birth to her child. On the other hand, women in Mali, Chad and Afghanistan have an average of more than six children.
IHME professor Ali Mokdad says that one of the most important factors in increasing the population is education.
"If a woman trains to herself, she spends more at school, is postponing her pregnancy and therefore fewer children," he says.
Mokdad says that the population of developing countries continues to grow, so their economies are generally rising and over time, the risk of childbirth usually decreases.
"It is anticipated that the economies will improve economically and there is a greater likelihood that fertility will decrease and decrease.
The critical point is when the national average fertility rate reaches 2.1 children per woman. Then the birth begins to decrease. When the study began in 1950, no country had achieved it.
"We have reached a pool where half of the country's fertility rate is lower than the compensation level, so if nothing happens, the population in these countries will decrease. This is a significant transition," said IHME professor Christopher Murray.
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The fact that the birth rate falls in many wealthy countries does not mean that people do this because the people of the country are part of childbirth, death and immigration. According to researchers, this phenomenon may also be a generation before the changes begin to get to know, but as more countries will gain a better economy, this phenomenon will become more and more common.
We live longer than ever before. The projected average life expectancy of men has increased to 71 years from 48 in 1950. Now women are expected to live up to 76, compared with 53 in 1950.
Heart disease is nowadays the most common cause of death in the world, is IHME. Later in 1990, there were newborn problems, followed by lung disease and diarrhea.
"You see less mortality from infectious diseases, as countries are richer, but also more disabilities, because people live longer," says Ali Mokdad.
He pointed out that since 1990, the number of infectious diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis has fallen significantly and new non-communicable diseases have occurred.
– There are certain types of behavior that cause more cardiovascular disease and cancers. Obesity is the first number – it grows every year, and our behavior contributes to it, he says.
If development does not disappear, we will have the development of the population with young children, but for very many years.
In order to reduce the impact of a population decline, there are three things that the state can accomplish, researchers write: increase immigration, make women feed more children with political reforms and raise their retirement age.
None of the measures have been successful, but the study says.
Countries with generous immigration are struggling with social and political challenges, fertile women have not had a significant impact on fertility, and proposals for a higher retirement age often have met with protests.
Migration from young people According to a study, poor countries are moving to rich countries, and this is not a global solution.
George Leeson is still optimistic and believes that aging is not a problem if it is tailored to the public.
Demography affects all our lives; traffic, how we live, consumption. It's all about demography, but we must plan a changed age structure in a way that has not yet been clarified, he told the BBC.
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