Thanks to the efforts of Russia and OPEC, the Slalom Revolution in the United States received a second wind that reduced production, raised prices and increased the cash flow of the shale companies, allowing them to increase their investment.
Shale production in the United States continues to exceed expectations: at the end of the third quarter, total oil production in the country amounted to 11.24 million barrels per day, the US Department of Energy reports in a monthly report.
Since the beginning of the year, volumes have risen by 1.3 million barrels per day, and by the end of the year growth will be 1.6 million barrels. This is the third one more than the Ministry of Energy, which is forecast only a month ago, and is 5 times higher than the forecast at the beginning of last year.
De facto, the analysts estimate that they are about one and a half years ahead of their analysts: their current production is at a level that the Energy Ministry would not expect until the end of 2019.
At the same time, the new forecast for next year has increased – from 12.16 to 12.31 million barrels per day.
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According to data from the Ministry of Energy, "black gold", which had lived in an environment where supply was less than demand for almost two years, returned to the global market in an excessively high position that would only increase.
At the end of the third quarter, global production exceeded the demand of the world economy by 170 thousand barrels per day, by the end of the year this figure will increase to 690 thousand barrels, and by mid-2019 it will reach 1.19 million barrels per day.
The lack of equilibrium, which is estimated to be a record, will be a record since 2015, when 1.5 million barrels of "extra" daily output collapsed at prices below the 12-year low of $ 27 per barrel from Brent.
Overflow drums are already starting to fill the vaults. During the OPEC + period, the OECD countries' commercial reserves have fallen from 3.029 to 2.806 billion barrels.
In the third quarter, they increased by 51 million barrels, and by the end of next year they will reach 3 billion barrels – the level from which the transaction was launched is a historic acquisition of countries.
They see a problem at the OPEC level, reports Bloomberg sources in the cartel. In their view, at a meeting this weekend in Abu Dhabi, the OPEC + ministers will discuss production cuts again.
In order to stop the shale tsunami, prices need to be reduced to $ 40 per barrel, experts from the Energy and Finance Institute warn: with such quotations, output growth will slow down to 0.3 million barrels per day in 2019 and decline by 0.6 million barrels per day in 2020