Tuesday , May 30 2023

The Federal Reserve system decides to wait for the financial world


Today's decision meets economists and market expectations. Recall: Markets value the ability to keep stp unchanged by more than 90 percent. The FOMC's decision is one-way.

The last increase in interest rates took place after the meeting of September 26, 2018.

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Today afternoon we inform: Fed today will win the dollar?

Yesterday afternoon, the dollar will lose after publishing the results of the Congressional election, which signaled victory for Democrats in the House of Representatives. The session in Asia confirms this trend, and the American currency is also making progress in the first hours of the European session.

  • "Every time we do what's wonderful, he's raising interest rates," said Jerome Powell, who summarizes Donald Trump, adding that, although he does not explicitly decide on his appointment, but maybe … maybe he will be. more "

EUROSTREFA: According to European Commission data, the economic growth of the euro area this year will reach 2.1 percent, in the future 1.9 percent, and in 2020 it will be 1.7 percent. With regard to Woch, the EC has increased by 1.1 percent this year, when it is 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent. 2020, which is the revision of previous forecast paths.

Brussels officials see this as an increasing budget deficit, which is only 1.9% this year. GDP in the future and 2.9 percent. GDP, and in 2020 it will overcome barriers of 3.0%. GDP and reaches 3.1%. GDP – it's more than expected from a government wax. Woch's debt is expected to remain close to 131 percent. GDP for the coming years until 2020.

Opinion: The yield on 10-year US government bonds (3.22%) is slightly offset, while Wall Street continues to grow. However, investors in Europe are experiencing a lot of adventurous – the German DAX is lagging behind, and as a result, the November 2 summit could not be verified at 11 681 points.

As a result, markets quickly "digest" the theme of the Congressional elections, returning to the old topics. The Fed meeting, which should endorse "positive" decision makers' views on future prospects for rising interest rates, may be supporting the US currency today.

On the other hand, the euro issue remains uncertain about the events on the Italian issue (from the European Commission, it shows that it can launch proceedings against Rome if it will not be amended in the draft budget for the coming year by 13 November). According to Mediw yesterday, the same head of ECB Mario Draghi spoke with Wochnia.

With regard to the pound, the government is increasingly pressured to adopt the law of brevity, although the Irish backstops scenario is not a jumble and is still a ministerial dividing line in the British prime minister's government. She hopes to make sure that her project is supported by the EU's main leaders before she wants to force her to take on her government, which may take place on Saturday.

Therefore, our week can play a crucial role in this topic. If he believes in speculation in recent days, the British will want to accept brevity bills until 19-21. November, to be presented at the special EU-United Kingdom Summit on 27-28 November. In November

This is just that, for the time being, the site seems to have stopped, which may lead to a pound growth adjustment in recent days. The US-China trade relationship continues to be an open topic.

However, the market is not focused on today's data on China's trade balance, and is awaiting rumors related to the sketch's new trade agreement, which is being prepared by the Trump administration, which will be submitted to Chiczisk this month. There is a risk that the other party will not get it well, and therefore the trade conflict can increase further (Biay Dom mgby will provide another import of other products from China in this situation). Investors are looking forward to it, but it can come back.

From the point of view of the EUR / USD day, it is clear that the attempt to escape from the growth channels was not successful, and we (so far) have made a return movement. If today the rally closes in the region at 1.1460 and above, then we can count on continued earnings. Ending in the 1,1420-60 zone, and this will mean an opportunity to increase the likelihood of returning to page 1.13 next week.


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On October 20th, we informed: some bankers want to continue to increase their margin – the Fed's minutes

Several FOMC members believe that interest rates should continue to increase steadily – in line with the latest Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes.

  • President Donald Trump in an interview with Fox Business told the television: "The Fed is my greatest threat," because it raises interest rates too quickly. Trump is increasingly attacking US central bank policy, writes Reuters. more "

A gradual approach to raising interest rates compares the risk that growth may be too fast or too slow, the Fed says.

"Some FOMC members expect monetary policy to be moderately restrictive as long as several of them have estimated that they should temporarily raise interest rates in relation to pre-defined long-term growth estimates in order to reduce their risk by exceeding 2%. Aiming at inflation and avoiding significant financial imbalances ", Fed wrote minutes in minutes.

"Calculating a neutral interest rate will be just one of the many factors that the FOMC takes into account when deciding on monetary policy," he added.

Bankers agreed on decisions to raise interest rates at a meeting.

"All the bankers have expressed the view that the Committee should continue to gradually approach the unification of monetary policy with a 25-bp percentage increase," the report said.

– Almost all FOMC members thought it expedient to remove a statement after the committee meeting that "monetary policy is still appropriate," said the banker.

The discussion of a neutral percentage stp is not part of the FOMC meeting.

"Calculating a neutral interest rate will be just one of the many factors that the FOMC takes into account when deciding on monetary policy," he wrote.

According to bankers, particular attention should be paid to the possible change in the yield curve of the US and high-risk loans as potential factors that may lead to a downturn.

"Several bankers are paying attention to the structure of interest rate conditions, and the potential inversion of the bond yield curve might be an economic outlook, since last year's inversion was usually before the downturn in the United States," wrote.

"Some participants in the meeting said that one should remain cautious regarding such risks of financial stability, as the number of risk loans … (…) and the activity in the non-banking sector will increase continuously," added "in minutes".

Markets react neutrally in the minutes of the FOMC meeting – the dollar opposes the currency basket by 0.5%. to 95.53 points, and 10-year US bond yields rose by 1 bp. to 3.18%.

The American federal reserve increases the key interest rate by 25 basis points at boiling point. to 2.0-2.25 percent. It was in the SMA cycle, which began in December 2015, and the third in 2018, will increase funding.

The Fed abolished the definition of monetary policy as "adaptable", but during the conference after the meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Federal Reserve monetary policy could still be described as "adaptable". Afterwards, Powell will assess that the US economy is "strong", customs issues do not affect its position.

In addition to the fact that the definition of monetary policy is eliminated, the Fed will not make any changes to the report. The Fed maintained its forecasts for four increases in 2018 and three more in 2019.

"The labor market is still strengthening, and activity in the economy is growing fast," predicts the Federal Reserve.

"Over the last few months, the average job growth will be stable and the unemployment rate will remain low," he added.

In the second quarter of 2018, US GDP grew by 4.2 percent. Unclassified version (SAAR) kdk. This is the highest quarterly reading since 2014. The next Reserve meeting will be held from 7 to 8 November.

A press conference will be held from January 2019 following each Fed meeting. So far, press conferences have been held every second meeting of the reservoir. The frequency of publication of a macro project will be maintained (quarterly).

Inflation, Unemployment, GDP – See Data for Poland and the World Business INTERIA.PL

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