Monday , March 8 2021

Our most complicated earthquake: Kaikōura is two years old

Scientists are still gaining abundant experience from the Qaikōur earthquake, two years after the jet of 7.8 shook the country with equivalent energy release of 400 atomic bombs.

Geologist GNS Science Earthquake Dr Rob Langridge said that an event that only occurred midnight on November 14, 2016 was one of the most complex earthquakes in the world.

This was largely due to the large number of errors that spoiled only one event.

More than 20 damage was activated – 14 of them were devastated enough to extort more than a meter.

None of these effects was dramatic compared to Marlborough Keckerung's damage, where the land was compensated for even 12 meters.

In some places, the crown was visible with erected terrain that stretched out in the countryside – some of which were called Waiku wall.

"Another lesson was that this complicated earthquake spread across regions – the earthquake began with defects in North Canterbury and crossed the north, causing major deficiencies in the Marlborough region," said Langrigid.

"The bustling deficiencies formed a complex network of north-Europe-shattering defects that were interconnected with the north of the clutches with a different mode of travel."

On a larger scale, the event encouraged scientists to consider the role of the subductive Pacific plate below Marlborough.

It is likely that this piece of the plate has been completely "locked" in the past or added to the crust, but now it turned out to be a big seismic role on this part of the South.

Shortly after the event, Langridge and his colleagues began collecting scientific data on defect ruptures, landslides, landslides, tsunami and liquefaction to help the public and provide advice and advice to the government.

"After a lot of data collection, we decided to publish a number of scientific papers in several foreign and local journals, so that the knowledge gained would be a lasting place," he said.

"Currently, we are trying to understand some of these shortcomings in the past due to guilt.

"So we have the money to return to the defects of Papatea, Keckerung, Hundale, Humps and Leader and the coastal story to understand how these defects were working in previous earthquake cycles."

There was still a lot of work to be done in many fields of science, from seismology to GPS-based geodesy.

In Marlborough Keckung Dam, near Waiau, in some places the land was raised by 12 m. Photo / Kate Pedley
In Marlborough Keckung Dam, near Waiau, in some places the land was raised by 12 m. Photo / Kate Pedley

This summer his team could dig the trench Papatea Fault to understand when it moved last year and how much it moved over several thousands of years.

This fault has produced an incredible number of slides in the 2016 earthquake – scientists have since been registered up to 9m vertical movements and 6m horizontal movements.

"It's really up there at the global stage as a huge land-relocation," Langridge said.

"Understanding how long it takes to accumulate this strain is key to unlocking these failures."

What was less clear was when the great earthquake had to come.

During the genetic earthquake, GeoNet recorded more than 20,000 postfreaks, and since then several thousands have been registered.

However, only a few of them were over 3.0 and the number of offspring continued to decline.

The GeoNet latest earthquake forecast, a statistically-based measure that calculated probability, created a 15 percent chance for aftershock from 6.0 to 6.9, which is astonishing in the next three months, and 46 percent of it at some point in a 12-month period.

Langrider viewed the potential of the future earthquake by comparing human time charts with geological ones.

"The way I look at it, we live on the edge of the horseback ridge, which accumulates about 4 m strain every century," he said.

"In a distant memory, we are talking about the mid-19th century earthquakes of Awatere and Wirarapa, which are breaking out of the most important boundaries of the plate.

"We have seen some of the other disadvantages in Central New Zealand involved in this earthquake.

"We just have to prepare individually and as a society for future earthquake prospects – they are part of our makeup."

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