Thursday , February 25 2021

Outlook for Algeria in 2019



Alzheimer's nominal GDP for 2019 will reach $ 200 billion to reach $ 200.2 billion for the first time in a Dubai report on the prospects for the world economy. The Bretton Woods institution also forecasts a slight increase in nominal GDP in Algeria in 2018 compared to 2017. It is expected to reach 188.3 billion (billion) in 2018 and 167.6 billion in 2017, supported by an increase in government spending, which should boost growth this year and next year. The Fund has maintained the October forecast that real GDP will not change by 2.5% in 2018 compared to 1.4% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2019, indicating that "the increase in public spending should be conducive to growth.
But "the projected fiscal decline in the coming years is likely to trigger a slowdown in oil growth in the medium term," says the last chance for the lender. The IMF recalls that Algeria has "increased its spending to stimulate economic activity, relying heavily on monetary funding," underlining that "the return to strong fiscal balances from 2019 is expected". "The monetization of the Algerian budget deficit has caused a significant liquidity surplus, which increased the credit to the private sector and the public sector in 2017," the report noted.
In this regard, the Fund notes that the ratio of private investment to GDP in the region's countries exporting oil products was driven by Algeria, whose average ratio increased from 14% to 22%. The IMF report discusses progress in improving the business environment, including adopting new laws to support small and medium-sized enterprises. At the same time, monetary monetary financing of the economy did not lead to an increase in inflation. The IMF has maintained its October forecast that inflation will be 6.5% in 2018 and 6.7% in 2019, which is lower than last year's April forecast. It is expected that, like other oil exporting countries in the region, external and budgetary balances will also improve, in particular thanks to the renewal of crude oil prices.
On the other hand, the report says that oil price recovery will "provide temporary support" to oil exporting countries in the region, but it needs to undertake reforms and fiscal adjustments to strengthen their long-term sustainability. Thus, in 2017, exports will increase to $ 46.2 billion, compared with $ 37.6 billion in 2017. The current account deficit this year will be -16.9 billion dollars against -22.1 billion dollars in 2017. This deficit will drop from a billion to -15.9 billion dollars. The current account deficit will be -9% of GDP in 2018 compared to -13.2% in 2017 and is expected to fall to -7.9% of GDP in 2019 according to the same data.
The IMF expects Algeria's budget to be at $ 105.1 in 2019 and $ 98.69 in 2019. However, in order to ensure the external balance, it will be much cheaper According to the IMF estimates in 2018 – 80.3 USD and in 2019 – 78.9 USD.


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