Oil prices are expected to rise very modestly in 2019, the World Bank warned recently, adding that trade volumes and the abundance of non-energy commodities in the markets are weighing prices.
Oil prices are projected to be $ 74 / barrel in 2019, slightly more than $ 72 on average, expected in 2018, while metal prices will remain unchanged in 2019. An international institution for the October Supply of Goods Markets Outlook.
World Bank estimates also indicate that "in 2018, the prices of energy products (oil, natural gas and coal) would be on average 33.3% higher than in 2017." However, the World Bank said that next year they should stabilize around the world.
According to the Bretton Woods institutions, a strong oil spill in the United States and a decline in production in Iran and Venezuela are also expected. As a result, the World Bank's data suggests that global demand should be the same.
On the other hand, the rise in prices of agricultural commodities, including food and raw materials, is expected to decrease slightly this year due to supply and trade pressures, and then grow by 1.6%. next year, according to his calculations.
With regard to the metal price index, the World Bank's report estimates that this should increase by 5.4% this year, slightly shrinking next year, stating that "prices could go higher than expected if international commercial disputes become more and more popular."
In international trade disputes and the intensification of trade restrictions between major economies, World Bank's economic development and interim Chief Economist Shanta Dewarayan are worried that they will lead to significant economic losses and trade costs that will be reflected in global value chains.
He warns: "Any decline in economic growth will have a significant negative impact on the rest of the world through trade, confidence, financial flows and commodity markets."
In this regard, the PB recalled in its reports that "the application of general and specialty customs duties this year has decreased and reorientated trade flows, increased price differences between individual countries and individual goods such as soya, steel and aluminum.
More generally, this situation "has expressed concern about the slowdown in world trade and growth prospects," the authorities point out.
Ayhan Kose, head of the World Bank Development Outlook Group, has no doubt that "commodity forecasts are very uncertain in view of several public policy risks." He specifically refers to the possibility of raising tariffs or new sanctions.
In addition, he believes that "a large number of developing countries and developing countries are dependent on raw materials, government revenue sources and export earnings, and therefore need to reinforce their policy guidelines and restore their fiscal space."
With regard to this report, it should be noted that it also contains specific documentation on the variable profile of industrial raw materials – energy and metals – and its impact on developing countries.