Monday , June 5 2023

The economic growth forecast will increase in the summer


Britain's economic growth is expected to increase in the third quarter, but analysts warned of a fall in production at the end of the summer.

Economists estimate that, according to consensus estimates, the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) from July to September increased to 0.6%.

This is after a second-quarter increase in growth again to 0.4%, as sunny hours promoted greater retail and construction.

It is believed that the weather has continued to warm up the economy in the third quarter, but the end of the period is increasing more slowly, as the summer growth is drowning.

"The Friday's GDP report is probably a cause for concern that the economy has a low pivotal pace," said Samuels Tombs, Britain's chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"The increase compared to the previous quarter may have risen to 0.6% in the third quarter, exceeding its economic potential, from 0.4% in the second quarter.

"But it simply reflects an increase in activity in weather-sensitive sectors at the beginning of the quarter, following the weakness of the past year." The September increase is expected to be 0.1%, reflecting a decline in several key sectors that have benefited from summer heat waves.

Economists expect monthly construction output to drop, based on the latest industry data.

The entrepreneur's efforts, which stopped east-east at the beginning of 2010, gave rise to an August lift, but these projects are likely to be completed.

In September September, however, consumers consumed less food while weighing retail sales, which decreased by 0.8%. This is expected to reduce the overall growth of service output.

The latest data from the Association of Motor Manufacturers and Merchants (SMMT) also suffered from car production, which represents a 16.8% decrease.

Investec analysts noted that the growth in August was flat, indicating that the temporary increase in the summer was fading.

"Although we would not have too many compelling conclusions from the one-month data alone, this suggests that a strong momentum in the economy has started a little bit at the end of the summer," they said.

"Moreover, we are not convinced that the situation has changed significantly in September."

Belfast telegraph

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