Wednesday , February 24 2021

Economist Speaks Great – Free Breakfast: Zeng Guoping – am730



An economist tells you

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The US unemployment rate in 2017 has reached a new low of 3.7%. (data image)

38 economists who support "Tomorrow's Day" will have nothing to say, and everything will be left to the government for more details. To make the subject of economists' announcements, today I want to return to the 2016 invasion and win, first of all, to understand English with everyone. (Helmet time: To avoid elite friends who love democracy and freedom of speech, abandonment and disrespect, my slogan is not an advocate of propaganda and even does not vote for a vote. This article is not about politics, I hope everyone will calmly let me go! )

"If he is elected, I expect the long-term recession to begin within 18 months. It is being elected, I expect the long-term downturn to begin in 18 months, calling far beyond the United States."

This sentence was written in June this year, authored by a famous economist, former senior government official, former Harvard Chief Justice Lawrence Summers. From year's time up to the end of the year, I believe that no matter how much you object to the invasion, you agree that the recession has not yet begun. In 2017, the US economy grew by 2.3%, while the unemployment rate was a new low of 3.7%. Of course, you can say that this is a good result of Obama's stay, and I have to reject it.

"If the question arises when the market will recover, the answer" for the first time "has never been."

"So, the approach is likely to be a global downturn, and you can not see the end." (So, we're probably looking at a global downturn without ending up).

These two sentences were written after the election day and the author is Paul Krugman, the most famous Nobel Prize winner. Yes, the market was fluctuating before the election, but after the election, the S & P 500 Index was around 2100. The last stock market was lagging behind and it rose by about 600 points, nearly 30% over the two years.

Economists had similar forecasts, and I just selected two representative samples. It is fair to say that economists who support the invasion have their own peculiarities. For example, their economic advisers can predict that the economic policy of the invasion can contribute to a growth rate of up to three to four percent. It may be too early to meet standards in 2017 and see if today's desires will come true. It's very likely that it blows too much, but at least two masters are not so wrong.

After a big deal, what's the story about this story?

The lesson of positive energy is that economists can not combine political stances or intentions with economic analysis, otherwise they will negotiate too much. Scientists and doctors have valuable names. The company is convinced of its professional analysis. Adding too subjective will and personal love and dislike is the assessment of self-satisfaction (or the protection of peers) or the justification of objective analysis.

The lesson of energy is that you are stupid. The memory of the goldfish mass will not forget you seem to be wrong. Like Dr. Doom mistakes and mistakes can still be the cover of the magazine (check: everyone remembers Hong Kong scientists' predictions) Will Trump for the US dollar decline by half?) The two economists mentioned above still have a reputation worldwide. The reputation is not lost because the year's forecasts are similar. Similar examples in Hong Kong are even more unnecessary. Something about the big, it's a stupid boy!

Source:
https://www.am730.com.hk/column/Financial/Economist talks about 咗 -149757

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