Saturday , February 27 2021

Except MSCI Greece Piraeus, National, Eurobank


Exclusion of three systemic banks, Piraeus Bank, National Bank and Eurobank from the index MSCI Standard Greece and lowering it to MSCI Small Cap MSCI decided to review its indicators, which will take effect after the closure of 30 November, confirming the worst possible scenarios. At the same time MSCI Small Cap The part of Elladador has been deleted.

After the last changes MSCI Standard Greece only six remain shares: OTE, OPAP, Alpha Bank, Jumbo, Motor Oil, Titan.

According to analysts, this development threatens the stockpiles of Greek systemic banks from a large foreign portfolio of radars, and the sole purpose of the life jacket is to radically resolve the red lending that the banking sector faces and which has attracted short funds.

This is typical of that Piraeus currently has the largest short positions in all other Greek banks and equities, which is 3.73% of its shares or 18.3 million euros (Lansdowne Partners 2.74% and Marshall Wace 0.99% of total shorts).

All three big British Hedge funds that have been "settled" for a long time are long-standing short positions Alpha Bank (Lansdowne 0.51%, Oceanwood 0.6%, Marshall Wace 0.59%), which together account for 1.7% of its shares, and two for short-term (more than 0.5%) Eurobank (Lansdowne 1.33%, Marshall Wace 0.52%, but Oceanwood lowered its position below 0.5% in September).

For her National BankOceanwood has increased its short position by 40% to 0.7% of its shares at the end of October, the fourth largest of the 10 short positions that the fund has received – and Marshall Wace has consistently kept short on the bank and 0.58% of it shares.

It is typical of the whole banking industry from the beginning of August, when the last pressure wave began, has lost 45% of its capitalization, with the total market value of the four systemic banks, which reached almost € 5 billion over the year, from € 8.7 billion. It should be recalled that after the recapitalization in 2015, the total market value of the four systemic banks amounted to EUR 9.8 billion, and in April 2013, after the first recapitalization, it amounted to EUR 25.6 billion.

It is worth noting that Societe Generale correctly calculated in its recent analysis (correctly) that, apart from these MSCI developing markets, these three Greek systemic banks will be located, and Eurobank will resume due to the sector's weight decrease in the index and Pireus and the National Bank due to the level of capitalization.

SocGen placed an outflow to EUR 52.73 million Eurobank or 79.01 million shares in Piraeus USD 17.59 million or 12.07 million shares and to the National Bank of 23.34 million dollars or 39.87 million shares.

UBS and Wood were more conservative and had calculated that only Piraeus would be written off, while the Swiss bank predicts that the outflow from MSCI's emerging markets would reach USD 27.32 million, or EUR 19 million. 79 million shares.

According to local analysts, all index breaks generate short-term volatility and given the slowdown in the Greek market, Greek stocks are expected to continue. As the industry has pointed out, the goal is still to achieve red-tape targets and improve the quality of their balance sheets. This will be one of the factors that will generate investment interests in the medium and long term, absorbing the pressure that can be caused by such "technical" reasons.

It is typical that, listening to the news, the only way to prepare the Bank's plan to cut the Greek bank's NPL was enough to send the banking index at 5.35% rally in the evening. However, as noted by Dimitris Tzan, Investment Manager of Cycle Securities, a press release on the creation of a Special Investment Facility (SPV) to transfer a significant amount of NPLs from bank portfolios helps to improve the investment philosophy of ATHEX. there is still a banking market. However, they must be fully integrated into equity in order to obtain a favorable agreement from the markets that will be needed to fund their bonds, and of course this is confirmed by the European institutions.

Eleftheria Kourtali, Alexandra Tombra

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