Monday , January 18 2021

Covid-19 – Like Catalonia, is France under detention?

Catalonia decided on Thursday to take a two-week break before attacking the second phase of deconstruction. Is such a scenario possible for France, which has to move to the second stage on 15 December? Start of answer with French Public Health data.

Catalonia announced a break in the decommissioning plan at noon this Thursday. Originally scheduled for 7 December, Phase 2 of the decommissioning will not be active until 21 December.

The relevant virus circulation, which in Catalonia is again progressing at a reproductive rate of 0.92, is slightly above the threshold of 0.90 set by the Catalan authorities.

Like Catalonia, France has opted for a phasing-out of three stages until 20 January. The next deadline is set for 15 December, when France could move on to the second stage and see that certain restrictive measures are significantly reduced.

But for this purpose, the President of the Republic, Emanuel Macron, had set goals: 5,000 new daily pollutants and no more than 2,500 to 3,000 people in intensive care.

How about that goal today? And, above all, whether France will be able to achieve this by next Thursday, when a decision is likely to be taken on whether or not to maintain 15 December as the second phase of decommissioning.

New pollution is too big?

As for the positive cases of coronavirus, it is clear that France is not yet in the nails. But the huge projection tool developed on CovidTracker suggests that the goal could be achieved. However, with more than 14,000 new cases registered on Wednesday night, France is far from the 7,600 cases that Covid-Tracker had scheduled for 2 December.

On average, France had 10,000 new cases a day last week, while Covids-Trackers had averaged 8,000 new daily pollutants per week. The coming days will be crucial. France is expected to stabilize at an average of around 6,500 new cases a week, which will be clearly less than the 5,000 expected on 15 December.

As for the second criterion, the number of patients admitted to intensive care is steadily declining, and France seems to be on the right track, according to Covid-Tracker. On December 8, the country will drop below 3,000 intensive care patients.

Therefore, the Catalan scenario cannot be ruled out for France. It is the data on new pollution that will be crucial and will have to be monitored in the coming days.

New second phase measures

It will be recalled that if France exceeds the second decommissioning rate on 15 December, the French will be able to move without a permit, including outside their own region. They can also spend Christmas with their families.

However, the commander’s hour will be valid from 21:00 to 7:00. On the evenings of December 24 and 31, however, the French will be able to move freely to reach their families, even if gathering on public roads will be prohibited.

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