Thursday , March 30 2023

Traders focus on yield delays, supply and demand figures


The slow increase in yields, the results of the medium-term elections and the renewed supply and demand of the US Department of Agriculture have continued to focus on traders.

Although recent livestock farming rates have shown that maize crop rates are close to the national average, some countries have shown that this year's fight is realistic. Maize, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota are generally lagging behind 5 percent or more, while soybean crops are aging nationwide overall, down 6 percent slower than average. A slight progress is expected with cold, wet, and even snowy weather.

The slow growth rate, coupled with the potentially lower production volume and the storage of more competitors on farms, has created an interesting money market. For a long time, many fear that the lack of a harvesting site will cause great shocks throughout the Corn Belt. Now, many end-users use encryption to get easily delivered deliveries. As a result, baseline levels are strengthened in areas with a competitive end-user structure, enabling those who plan to store grains in a short period of time.

The results of the interim elections were such that you could be called mixed, it seems that both parties claim victory and victory. Many have believed that the so-called "blue wave" might have encouraged China, which would potentially allow them to negotiate well before the presidential elections after 2020. However, the lack of striking results, as well as the obvious support for many areas of the Presidency's agenda, can encourage the Chinese negotiating table faster than later.

The November supply and demand report is generally not related to events, except for some minor adjustments to the production forecast or demand forecasts. A conversation was held before the report on the updated Chinese National Statistical Bureau's audit of maize and wheat output. After ten years, the agency conducted its first assessment of the actual availability of production and supply through adjustments that were extended over a decade.

The CNSB argued that they completely fired provincial production, resulting in an increase in production of more than 200 million metric tons (7.9 billion bushels) in total. Many took this information into disputes, believing that the USDA would save the numbers that they collected over the years. They did not use the production numbers released by the Chinese government instead, but, in assessing their use and setting the national target, 149 million metric tons (5.9 billion bushels) were higher than previous estimates. In doing so, the USDA doubled its global forecasting projections from the previous month, as well as expectations from entrepreneurs.

Such a significant increase in global supplies overshadowed what would have been the bullshore outlook for the local maize as production was lowered, as the yield was 2.5 bp / acre lower than last month's estimate and 1.1 bp / acre was lower than the expectations of traders. The decline in income reduced the total output by 152 million bushels. Part of the reduction in production was offset by reduced demand, feed consumption decreased by 50 million bushels and the export demand decreased by 25 million bushels. In the end, the domestic input was 1.736 billion, while the traders' expectations were 1.773 billion and last month's estimate was 1.813 billion.

For things related to soy, we saw production shrunk, and the USDA cut its profitability forecast by 1 bushel per acre, slightly reducing the expectations of traders. Exposure reductions have reduced total output by 90 million bushels from last month, but this is not enough to offset a decline of 160 million bucks in the export forecast. The delivery was 955 million bushels, which exceeded the 898 million bushel forecast and 885 million bushel predictions last month. If it is understood, the excess would now be more than 10 times higher than the level seen only five years before it.

Wheat is essentially no event. We continue to see the USDA expect a large increase in the sowing of new crop wheat, thereby increasing the hopes of seed use. This increase in seed has slightly increased from the previous month, thus slightly reducing the expectations of traders. China's production level was also increased for wheat, but nowhere close to the level observed in maize.

However, it is important to point out that when looking at Chinese numbers, even with the increase in stocks available, these bushes will not do so globally. In addition, we have indeed seen that the price of domestic maize pulses in the country is beginning to increase, something that does not correspond to the government's over-predicted projections, and if we remove the Chinese stocks from wheat and maize on a global scale, we have indeed seen that subscription has decreased.

We are approaching the G20 summit and the time of President Trump and the Chinese President, Xi. It is likely that a possible decision on both sides will continue.

Angie Setzers is Grain Vice President of Citizen Lift. You can reach him at [email protected]

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