Monday , March 1 2021

Raw deliveries, the global economy

Oil markets again fell on Wednesday, increasing losses from 7 percent as the previous session declined as supply volumes rose sharply and speculative speculation overwhelmed investors.

The US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures amounted to $ 55.50 / barrel at 0514 GMT, down 19 cents from their last settlement.

International Brent Oil futures were reduced by 22 cents to $ 65,25 per barrel.

Since the beginning of October, crude oil has lost more than a quarter of its value, which has become one of the biggest drops since prices collapsed in 2014.

The drop in spot prices has redefined all of the crude oil front curve upside down.

The spot prices in September were significantly higher than those for later delivery, a structure known as a return, meaning a limited market, because oil storage is unattractive.

From mid-November, the curve was strained by contango when raw deliveries were cheaper for immediate delivery than those for later shipment. This means too much supply in the market as it makes it attractive to store oil for later sale.

On the one hand, oil markets are under pressure: rising supply and rising concerns about the economic downturn.

The US Department of Energy Information Administration (EIA) is predicting that the seven largest shale basins in the United States are expected to reach 7.94 million barrels per day (BPD) in December.

This increase in land sales has helped to increase US oil production by 11.6 million bpd in total, thus making the United States the world's largest oil producer before Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Most analysts predict that the US output will increase by 12 million bpd in the first half of 2019.

"In our opinion, this in our opinion will exceed the price above $ 85 per barrel (on oil prices)," said Jonas Anderson, Head of Vontobel Asset Management's commodity position.

Growth in US production contributes to stock growth.

US crude stocks increased by 7.8 million barrels per week, which ended on November 2, amounted to 432 million, as crude oil refineries cut output, the American Oil Institute said on Tuesday.

A cartel with the oil-exporting countries (OPEC) producers is alarming with supplies and falling prices.

OPEC is increasingly publishing announcements that it will start charging crude oil in 2019 to boost supply and raise prices.

"OPEC and Russia are forced to reduce current production levels and this is the decision we expect from the next OPEC meeting on December 6th," Anderson said.

This causes the OPEC to collide with US President Donald Trump, who publicly supports low oil prices and who has called for OPEC not to cut production.

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