Sunday , February 28 2021

Currencies: Why the worst is Kenyan Shilling :: Kenya



Even if the Kenyan shilling fell from the last six weeks to the weakest since January, the worst may be coming.

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High government spending can put pressure on shillings.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts Kenya's fiscal deficit of 6.6% of gross domestic product this year.

Zambia is higher than the Eurobond nations in the region.

If the deficit is to increase, Kenya's relatively low interest rates will not help, especially given the incidental trend of developing market risk these days.

In the local interbank market, the rate dropped to the lowest level for more than seven years in the previous month.

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Since then, it has risen by almost three percent, but it is only half the Kenyan inflation rate of 5.5 percent.

At the end of last year, the IMF acknowledged that Kenya had the first exchange rate between sub-Saharan African eurobonds issuers in Ethiopia and Angola.

And since then, both of these currencies have fallen more against the dollar.

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Overrated?

The IMF estimates that Kenyan Shilling is one of Africa's largest currencies. At the same time, Shilin is Africa's best-performing unit this year, even after recent pain. But there is an excess liquidity in the market.

The central bank of Kenya yesterday announced that it has granted 9 billion ($ 88 million) debt through a seven-day repurchase agreement to "shred" shillings that could help raise the interbank rate.

Prices of goods on the international market have not contributed to domestic exports, including coffee and tea, which have received lower prices.

This, coupled with the fact that the country's import bills have increased due to rising oil prices in the world, has triggered a shrinkage of pressure because the country received fewer foreign currencies than it pushed out.

Foreign investors are also nervous, with several of them killing Kenyan securities in their home countries – mainly in North America and Europe.

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