2019-01-14 04:09:20 Source: Securities Times
"Bond investments also have a rotation." Bond's securities market usually starts with interest rate bonds and then rotates on high, medium and low-grade loan bonds to close unwanted bonds. The 2018 top-level long-term bond bonds were good and this year's absolute income space is limited.
Credit default continued last year and bond funds were concentrated in interest rate bonds. As interest rates on bond yields fell and broad credit policies declined, the investment in credit bonds returned to the fund's view. Several fund managers have said that this year they can properly deposit credit loans to get a surplus, but they still need to be careful about credit risks.
Efficiency of investment costs of credit bonds
Unlike last year, we are optimistic about interest rate bonds, and many fund managers are now beginning to pay attention to the types of credit bonds.
"Bond investment also has a rotation." The large-scale fund company fixed recipient department director Shenzhen announced that debt cows usually start with interest rate bonds and then rotate on high, medium and low quality loans, and junk bonds finally end. The 2018 top-level long-term bond bonds were successful, but this year there are limited opportunities for absolute returns. In the current 10-year Treasury, the yield rate is below 3.0% and 3.1%, well below the historical average of 3.5%. As the market forecasts for macroeconomics, inflation and monetary policy narrow, the 10-year Treasury returns will return to historical averages. "Currently, US bond yields are around 2.6%. The Fed has a high probability that this year's rate will come to a halt and the US economic downturn will be lower. China and US Security Increased This Reserve Has Significantly Weakened, and the US bond yield in 2016 is unlikely to return to a 2.0% low, ”said Director of the Consolidation Board.
The fund manager of a medium-term fund for fundraising in Beijing has made it clear that there was an advantage over credit bonds. Last year's default cases often came out, and in the pessimistic market sentiment, the spread of loans continued to rise, and many types of income were relatively high. On the other hand, the broad currency has accelerated the transition to broad credit, and the widespread credit policy, which has reduced the pressure on corporate refinancing, has gradually diminished, and yields on low and medium credit bonds have declined significantly. In line with a number of policies, such as tax cuts and tax cuts, raising base money and supporting private corporate bond financing, the corporate finance environment will be improved in the short term and credit risk will be reduced. In addition, the policy of local private company floods has gradually reduced the financing of corporate finance.
Special Quality Coupon Configuration
The variety of credit bonds has been re-emphasized and the fund managers' specific action ideas have changed.
The fund manager of the fundraising fund in southern China is optimistic about high-quality credit bonds. He believes that some short-term, high-value credit bonds can currently be placed, and the low absolute return can be offset by the high position and leverage effect.
"It is expected that in the second half of the year there will be a stable growth policy and the economy will stabilize. At that time, credit ratings can be properly dumped." The Deputy Director of the Fixed Income Investment Department mentioned that credit securities are different from the traditional bond investment logic, and the economic situation is better. Pessimistic and credit risk will diminish as corporate profits improve, which can increase exposure to certain credit risks and configure medium and low-level credit bonds.
According to the fund manager of the aforementioned fixed income fund, he usually uses a credit bond as a bottom position and uses an interest rate bond to trade lanes. Given that the interest rate recession is limited, it is not easy to profit from wave trading, and it will also result in some loss of costs, and this year will reduce the frequency of interest rate bonds. At the same time, the combination will select credit bonds and keep credit debts distributed. In terms of specific configuration, we are optimistic about the low relaxation of high quality real estate debts. In addition, the relative countercyclical leader of private companies can also be properly configured. "The overcapacity sectors, which are less affected by the economic cycle and have lower short-term debt repayment pressures, have fallen significantly and are also worth paying attention to," he added.