(Original name: Very sudden … 800 yuan consistently optimistic Maotai, dropped to 500, but somebody is bearish! Shareholders "were"?)
Kveichow Mouti hosted the third extraordinary general meeting on April 28, 2018.
During the meeting, Maotiah's decline was very worrying. Some even claimed that Mao's slowdown in the third quarter's quarterly report indicates whether the beverage industry has come down.
Why is it that when Maotai rose to 800 yuan, everyone was optimistic, and now the stock price has fallen to 500 yuan, but is someone obstinate?
The three-quarterly report triggered a sharp fall in stock prices
Kweichow Moutai has cut three quarterly reports published by Kweichow Moutai. Moutai reported that in Q3 2018, Guizhou Moutai's revenues amounted to 18.845 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2% over the prior year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.699 billion yuan. Compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, the increase was 2.7%.
In the third quarter of last year, when it was influenced by high national consumption during the national holiday, the middle autumn holiday and other holidays, it was the highest point in Guizhou Moutai's performance. This year, some people have fallen under glasses. As in the same period last year, Maotay's earnings and earnings growth rates exceeded 100%. The market believes that due to a slowdown in the third quarter of this year, Maotai's year-round results may not be able to meet market expectations.
Looking at the advances, advances as a key indicator of leader prices have already highlighted the risk of Moutai's downward spiral. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, Kveichow Moutai's previous earnings dropped five quarters in a row, but in the third quarter it slightly improved compared to the second quarter but is still low. By influencing the publication of three quarterly reports and various factors, Gizhou Moutai rarely came to the forefront on October 29 and then continued to decline. From the highest of 800 yuan in June this year to the current 560 yuan, its stock price has dropped by 30% from the high level and the bearish voice of Maotai is unchanged.
Taking into account market doubts, Li Baofang EGM, chairman of Gujduff Maotan, said that, according to Moutai's normal development cycles, the pace of recovery remains, and this has not yet come to an end. He also said that Maota's decline in previous revenues was a result of active measures and that the Moutai and Wine series would fix a certain price period.
Currently, the price of 560 yuan would be cheaper or bullish?
Dong Baozhen, a long-time Maotai investor in Beijing, believes that the market has a tendency to increase the effects of growth and fall. In the past, Maota's rapid growth was driven by the overheated mind of the market, and the current downturn was influenced by the reverse of the market. Currently, the price of Maotai is smarter, but after a short 7-fold increase in stock prices, it's hard to say when it will be repaired.
Investor Linjuans went to Maotia to attend the shareholders' meeting yesterday. He believes that the current growth rate of Maotai is slowing down, as the base year of last year is too high and the company's basic principles have not changed. The current 21-fold P / E indicator is reasonable. Maota is still in a fragile state and market demand is much higher than production. He believes he will invest in the company for ten or twenty years and will not appreciate the company's future development, as quarterly data is changing.
Observation of Lujiazui
Sometimes the stock price is not entirely positive about the company's performance. The company's short-term stock price can be easily influenced by various factors, such as market and industrial cycles.
It is obviously not reasonable to transfer good companies to the quarterly report, but for any good company or any industry, there will be a growth cycle in the development process, and market sentiment will fluctuate periodically.
The current Maotai price index depends on whether you are a short-term investment or a long-term investment. If it is short, you may be very concerned about the changes in Maotai's quarterly results, but if this is a long-term one, then Maotii's current rating is not so great.