Sunday , April 18 2021

Goldman says that the US and China will not reach a trade agreement by March and future tariffs



President Donald Trump (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinps, along with Mara-Lago property in West Palm Beach, Florida, on April 7, 2017, walk around together.

Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images

President Donald Trump (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinps, along with Mara-Lago property in West Palm Beach, Florida, on April 7, 2017, walk around together.

Goldman Sachs economists said it is unlikely that it will be concluded that the US-China trade talks will not reach an agreement in time to remove higher tariffs on March 1 and importers could quickly order their products in January and February before the expiration date.

Goldman said that international trade data reflects the frontloading of goods before the last round of tariffs and that purchases of soybeans declined significantly.

The October data on trade was the first appearance after September September in September for tariffs of 200 billion Chinese goods and 60 billion US dollars. Goldman said the volume of imports and exports was attractive, before the € 200 billion tariff came into effect on September 24, and both tariffs were reduced after the introduction of tariffs just as after the first round.

In the summer, the US also introduced 25 percent of the US $ 50 billion in Chinese imports, and China responded in kind.

This effect was an increase in the US trade deficit. "The decline in exports compared with a slight increase in imports in October led to a trade deficit with China," writes economists.

US imports from China are about $ 5 billion less than a year and exports are about $ 15 billion lower as seasonal factors affect soybean exports to China. Economists said there has been significant change in some big categories, including the impact of soybeans. Approximately 60 percent of annual soy bean exports to China are in the fourth quarter, about 25 percent only in October.

"Except for soybeans, exports to China are only slightly lower compared to a seasonally adjusted price," writes. As regards imports, US imports of electronic circuits and memory components increased before the second round of tariffs and dropped sharply after their introduction

If by March 1 there is no agreement, tariffs will be planned up to 25 percent from 10 percent for 200 billion Chinese goods.


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