As expected by the market, at the first meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Federal Reserve of the United States, it was decided not to change the world's largest economic interest rates to 2.25% and 2%. , 5%. As always, investors paid attention to the language chosen to announce it and the main word triggered the euphoria of the markets.
Jerome Powell said: "The argument for continuing monetary adjustment has weakened, common sense suggests patience." At the same time, he rejected the signs of recession and reiterated that the United States is in "good economic shape".
The reading is that with the impulse through Donald Trump or not, the interest rate in 2019 will not increase. "In the study Merchants, we not only believe that the rate will grow this year, but the fact that the news is a little more godly opens the door to the fall in rates in 2020," said Gustavo Neffa.
This only word, "patience", underlined the world market. The local stock market joined, and bonds changed their initial decline and ended up higher. Country risk was compressed to 689 units.
Although the Federal Reserve signals are very good for emerging markets, which seems to have started in 2019 on the right foot, the question is whether Argentina can, in particular, benefit from this climate change.
"The news is very good for Argentina, they gave some positive definitions, for example, when they say rates could be close to neutral, so it's not a non-contractual, expansive policy," said Ezequiel Zambglione of Max Valores. "This is the risk of the regime, quite the opposite of what happened at the beginning of last year, it is good news that the drop in the flow and the Argentine risk premium will continue to decrease, and the central bank will continue to accumulate reserves that give more freedom to monetary policy," he said. said.
Diego Martínez Burzaco, chief economist at MB Inversiones, Argentina will be able to take less advantage of their regional partners' views on the reference markets. "Argentina is a different case, first of all because it is currently outside the voluntary markets because it has a lender to the International Monetary Fund, and then political uncertainty about the asset price will continue to weigh. You don't have to be euphoric with this news if you keep in mind that the international scenario provides the air the economy needed, ”he said.
The analysts consulted were expecting tension differences to reach 600 points this year. However, these levels are well above 400 country risk points, which the economy showed at the beginning of the macro-era when it was successfully placed on the international debt market.
If there are no opportunities for local investors to be issued in the coming months, they will be able to use more cautiously in Fed portfolios. Puente partner Marcos Wenzel expects local corporate bond investment opportunities to emerge in this scenario. "There is a group of companies, including YPF and Arcos Dorados, which, with profits close to 7%, offer unmatched purchasing opportunities," he said.
In addition, Wenzel pointed out that a greater flow to the new countries could be a signal for the local currency. "With this scenario, at least in terms of rates, the region's country's devaluation pressure is limited, and it is good for Argentina, with a weight that, after the devaluation of 2018, became competitive against its peers," he added.