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The dollar is falling sharply and selling at the lowest price in two months



Dollar value end with open weakness In the first month of 2019 currency made more than 2% and Central bank repurchase as a buyer of forex was a zero consequences change.

Is it a market much more nourishment exports, with the leading offer of wheat harvest as well. , re-import of funds transferred to pesos to use high interest rates and the very low domestic stock and bond ratings suggest that the dollar is in low demand a $ 800 million a day, rare in the first month of the year.

Diego Martínez Burzaco"MB Inversiones" analyst said that " external financial situation that is what gives it capital to the region, mainly to Brazil and leak to Argentina ”.

After being sold under 38 pesos in the morning. T. National Bank The US currency is sold $ 38.10, with a drop of 30 cents or 0.8 percent. It is the lowest price since December 3, last year. In average Buenos Aires city banks are offered 38.07 pesos.

As was the case throughout January, the Central Bank made foreign currency purchases on the wholesale market – an initiative that has not taken place since June 2017. $ 50 Million average price of 37,0896 pesos. Thus, in the first month of the year, accumulated purchases were $ 560 million, borders agreement stand with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), about $ 700 million per month.

The monetary unit proposed to repurchase currencies as soon as the wholesale price is below. T. floor of the "non-interference" zonethat this Thursday signs $ 37.86and $ 37,886 for February 1.

No Researchers for traders "The goal of BCRA is to move to the exchange rate in a free floating band and the market expects the company to define from today to the morning if you increase your daily purchases from $ 50 million to $ 150 million create more demand for foreign currency. "

Martínez Burzaco said Infobae that "the central bank should consider using additional instruments for maintaining the exchange rate for example in the intervention area banks are gradually turning their risk foreign currency in its net worth today is 0 percent.

Martínez Burzaco pointed out that "Central to speed up interest rate cuts and do fine operation work to measure Market sensitivityto fixed-term stocks don't give the dollar in a meaningful way, especially "a" election year which at some point Dollarization will accelerate portfolios ”.

While they were reduced by more than 4 percentage points in January below 55% per year, they are still high enough to slow down reactivation economy and they are a ballast to increase it the dollar, a conservative position, which in this context cannot compete with such profits in local currency. At the same time high rates and "exchange rate silence" today is very important slow down inflation.

MB Inversiones economist also observed "laceration banks because the BCRA could to open this liquidity crisis to cut down on money and stop paying for a lace. "Since Guido Sandler central bank allows banks to integrate lace with LELIQ encourage them to continue to make deposits. In this way, "banks will return to the role of their financial intermediation", says Martínez Burzaco.

Is DOLLAR CHEAP?

Improper exchange rate development in recent months, today a 1.7% below the free floating band, add voltage when it is believed that inflation remained strong despite its gradual descent.

Green ticket reached a entry on September 28, no $ 41.85 for sale to the public and $ 41.25 for a wholesaler, a movement that many analysts considered exaggerated. Since then, last four months dollar lost 10%, at the same time, the average retail prices have accumulated almost 14 percent.

So the dollar in Argentina lost purchasing power by 21.1% from October to Januarywhen all other financial alternatives offered positive income.

Of course, to exchange competitiveness It doesn't just depend on the dollar. The appreciation of other currencies The number of trading partners for the North American currency reduces this potential "exchange rate delay", which is limited to a very short term.

For instance, Brazil lost 9% dollar, from 4.01. reales from September 28th to September 3rd. Thursday. In this respect, the Argentine Peso followed the currency of its main trading partner.

We should also not forget that the price of a green ticket in Argentina today is 90% higher than a year ago when it closed January 1918 for a $ 19.65 wholesaler and a $ 19.93 retailer. That's it rate almost doubled with inflation 47% per annum.

According to the multilateral real exchange rate index (ITCRM). T. Central BankThe current competitive advantage of the Pesos of Argentina is similar to January 2014 and September 2011and a 15% higher than on December 17, 2015when Mauricio Macri's administration eliminated exchange control or "bake".


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