Tuesday , September 27 2022

the dollar fell again, and the Central again lowered the interest rate


stable market

In the wholesale market, the currency dropped by 17 cents to settle at $ 35.50, so it has already dropped by 14% since the peak reached at the end of September

The dollar fell on Thursday, despite the fact that the central bank again lowered the reference interest rate to a lower level since October. Two factors that indicate that foreign currency supply is higher than demand driven by financial investors who focus on cancellation of positions in the US currency, using the benefits that profit margins are still considered to be high.

In the wholesale sector, the currency dropped by 17 cents to settle at $ 35.50, which is very close to the lower flotation group established by the Central Bank, which suggested not to intervene in the market, which began at the beginning of this month. for $ 35.05 and is updated every month by 3%.

Matching it with monetary unit bank litigation letters (Leliq) at daily auction banks as an incentive not to buy their pesos in dollars, in which it allocated $ 176.610 million with an average downgrade rate of 67.13%; the lowest since October.

Namely, the proposed income decreased by 30 basis points compared to the previous day, and since it reached the highest level on October 19, when it reached 72.88%, it already decreased by 5.75 percentage points..

This decline in the low level of foreign currency and interest rates is taking place, despite the fact that BCRA released on the market $ 97,000 on the market on Wednesday, which was not renewed after the LELIK deadline.

"The fall in prices North American currency values ​​make the lower boundaries in the non-intervention zone and create expectations that Central Bank's purchases will be unforeseen in previous months," says Gustavo Quintana of PR Cambios.

The total volume traded on the foreign exchange market remained at a significant level, as in the last few days, about USD 607 million.

On the other hand, the retail price in the micro-center, according to the BCRA survey, the average retail price of major banking entities fell by 19 cents to settle at $ 36.53.

Banco Nación's quotation to the company fell by 20 cents to settle for $ 34.60 per purchase and $ 36.40 per sale.

The maximum windows were $ 36.80, sold to Patagonia, followed by Galicia $ 36.70, and $ 36.60 for the ICBC and HSBC.

Buenos Aires on the microcosm of the cave side, the blue price dropped by $ 34.75, which is 4.9% lower ($ 1.78 less) than the official retail average.

With regard to Rofex futures markets at the end of the year, December companies deploy a slow exchange rate of USD 38.33. And by May 2019, trades were set at $ 45.10.

The International Focus Economics study, which was held in November in which a group of national and foreign bank economists and advisors predicted that in 2019, the main economic variables in the country would be. By the end of December of the following year, experts agree that the dollar will be $ 49.37, which has slightly decreased compared to the previous survey (October) estimated at $ 51.06.

Similarly, this exchange rate is much higher than that foreseen in the 2019 draft budget, which is being discussed at the National Congress, which states that the price is $ 42.10 per day. That is, for economists, the dollar will be 17% higher than government estimates.

Among the consultants who believe that the ticket will be higher than the unanimity ($ 49.37) is local Hernan Hirsch FyEConsult, which estimates that in December 2019 it will be $ 54.11, followed by Fundación Capital ($ 54 )) and Ecolatin with $ 53.50.

This growth rate is similar to that reported by FocusEconomics's report, with experts agreeing on a 28% target for 2019. That is, the level is higher than 27.1%, which was projected last month's survey.

The positive fact that makes the currency exchange exchange stable for the government is that it should not sell foreign currency to verify the dollar's price so that the reserves remain unchanged at around USD 53,486 million.

On this queue, on Thursday, the Central Bank announced that a new currency exchange agreement (swap) with China had been concluded close to the amount of $ 8,700 million and will be added to another agreement, which is valid for several years, at $ 10 billion.

Depending on what was happening with the peso assessment, the regional levels devaluated the Brazilian and Mexican currencies.

Stocks and bonds

The Buenos Aires Stock Exchange reacted slightly to the rest of the international markets after the week on which weekly growth rates were recorded.

The main index of Buenos Aires Merval dropped by 2.1% to settle below 31,000 points. Following this fall in November, leading stock accounted for about 4.2% of profits.

The The biggest losses were recorded in Petrobras (4%), followed by Edenor (-3.4%), Cablevisión (-3.4%) and YPF, which lost 3%.

Argentinian companies trading in Wall Street with ADR format have lowered Mercado Libre (-5.2%), Petrobras (-3.9%), and YPF (-3.5%) for Argentine companies. , Supervielle (-3.1%) and Edenor, which declined by 2.7%.

For public bonds, the most significant was the increase in Bonar 2037 last year, up 1.8%. On the other hand, a few dollars arose among the major failures, which fell by 3 percent.

On an international level, continental markets also showed a downturn. In the United States, the fall of the Nasdaq index, which corresponds to technology reserves, dropped by about 0.5 percent, was highlighted.

According to the Advisory for Research for Traders, the Fitch agency downgraded its government debt forecast to "negative", "due to a lack of economy and uncertain prospects for fiscal consolidation in the coming years."

And he added: "The strong macroeconomic imbalances this year, characterized by a big drop in pesos, have weakened growth opportunities in the short term."

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