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Summer star: why in January the stock market dollar rose by 20%

In 2018, Argentina's assets were in the emerging markets group, which was penalized by a capital outflow with hopes of rising interest rates in the US. In addition, they led the group, the Argentine peso devalued slightly more than 100%. In the stock market, this exchange turbulence created a … Decrease of 50% of Merval in 2018.

So far in January – the month that has left the wheel today to mark the official closure – the Stock Exchange Leading Panel S & P Merval) increased to 36 039 points. For the beginning of the year, when the total private equity quotation reached 30 292 units, growth was 18.9%. In the dollar, this jump was 19.7 percent.

Analysts point out that, in the context of the current "good financial news", which consists of a stable exchange rate, low interest rates and country risks that appeared in most of the month, Merval's data stand out as a star so far this summer mainly from external factors.

The closing of the evening wheels increased by 1.5% on Tuesday, as a result of the increase in the Supervielle group (4.19%), Aluar (3.49%), ByMA (2.83%), the French bank (2.54%) and Tenaris (2.29%), according to Argentina's stock exchange and market data.

Meanwhile, in overseas markets, the Argentine ADR, holding shares listed on Wall Street, showed a similar increase – with Supervielle (3.8%) and MercadoLibre (3.1%).

"Argentina is linked to the market improvement seen in the international scenario. January was a very good start year for developing countries in general United States Federal Reserve Rate Notices, ”he explained. Fernando Baers, Analyst of Quantum Finance. The latest releases of the US monetary authority are creating expectations in the international market in 2019, reducing the reference rates.

In this respect Argentina was an additional factor in improving the conditions for developing markets, assuming that Jair Bolsonaro is Brazilian President, in accordance with Christian Buteler from Buteler Servicios Financieros. The analyst expects the Bolsonaro effect to have a positive impact on the region after 2018, where Latin America was one of the most affected areas.

Among other variables, the positive international impact can be seen in the downward trend of country risk in the first weeks of January, although the premium on government bonds over the last 3 wheels has increased. "Overall there is a tendency to have a negative correlation between country risk and Merval price: When one goes up, others tend to go down and vice versa, ”commented Amilcar Collante from CESUR (South Economic Research Center).

The economist believed that the downside country risk benefited large companies with access to international markets. Many of them are listed in S & P Merval. "Now we are back in the middle, the market was expecting negative results and now doing the same," Collante said.

Analysts do not rule out a possible turning point, because the political factor, namely the presidential election, is starting to weigh more. "Macroeconomic problems did not disappear in front of the inland," Buteler summed up, "without a change that had leveled off, there was no big change."

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