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According to analysts, infacin started the road with increasing trend since August, and although it will have valleys, it will continue to grow and reach 3.3% to 4.1% per month in the next semester, exceeding the change dlar. This trend was noted in the Monthly Market Expectations Survey (REM) Central Bank (BCRA).
The average of the respondents calculated their forecasts for infacin estimating that 2020 will be concluded with inflation from 36.4% to 36.7%. On his side, from BCRA reported to mean a infacin from 17m4 to 17.1 points lower than 53.8% from 2019.
The problem is that the data represent an estimate that is 1.3 or 0.9 points higher than forecast a month ago. October is also the first time since the beginning of the pandemic that respondents lagged behind in their calculations, waiting for a infacin reported a total of 3.2% and reached 3.8% Indec.
Hand in hand with the predictions of infacin By 2021, they increased from 48.9% to 50% and adjusted the increase in their estimates.
They estimate infacin November ranged from 3.5% to 3.6%, and they retain the estimates of 4% for December and 4.1% for January, as well as significant increases for the February and March forecasts.
In this way, analysts believe that infacin savings in 2020 due to the rate freeze and price agreement began to be seen in the last months of the year and will continue in the first four months of 2021, taking into account the official announcements end of freezing in March.
The economy, showing recovery, will lead to a return to distribution supply major wage adjustments have taken place in recent years. Participants REM they this year calculated a range from 10.9% to 11% of each economy.
However, they estimate it slow motion Recomposing the operation will force it to grow by only 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and remain mediocre in the first quarter of 2021, where the improvement is less than 1 point.
The activity will allow you to grow by Gross domestic product (GDP) 4.8% in 2021, although it will expire in 2022, reaching 2.5%.
For dlar, the forecast estimates that it will close to USD 83 per year and reach USD 126.45 at the end of 2021, showing a nominal devaluation of the peso of 38.6% this year and a further 52.3%.
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