Thursday , March 30 2023

Is exchange summer in Argentina? Oil collapse and fear returned to the world


External euphoria and warning days passed. Wall Street was disappointed with Citigroup's results and the balance season is not as stable as expected. There are already companies that have made progress that their income will not be as expected.

The collapse of stock markets was global, albeit moderate. The only markets that survived were Tokyo and San Pablo, which still light up in the Bolsonaro effect.

The outer part can complicate Argentina, although the dollar remains below the bottom line of the flotation band. In the wholesale market, touching $ 37.24, it closed at $ 37, which is only 4 cents higher than Friday. Central bank intervention of $ 50 million was harmless.

In the banks and at home, the currency increased by 2 cents to $ 38.05. "Blue" had a slight increase of 25 cents to $ 37, but almost no action.

The dollar was balanced against the world's major currencies, but in Latin America it was against the Mexican peso, the real and the Chilean peso, where it touched the lowest value in a month and a half.

The greatest benefit of the currency slump was local bonds. Country risk decreased by 0.57% to 698 basis points. Perforated 700-point floorbut it is not a news offering because the recession was due to the fall of the dollar bill and the fall of US Treasury bonds, rather than the recovery of confidence in Argentina. Actually bonds are still offered and without buyers. The benefit is that they grew more than a dollar. The truth will be visible when the dollar is in the flotation line of life.

Reserves lost $ 78 million and remained at $ 65.958 million, though they bought $ 50 million in the domestic market to keep the dollar. However, $ 16 million was lost abroad due to a decline in Treasury bonds, and BIRA 2022, 2023, 2027 and 2028 were paid for $ 226 million, in addition to 10 million international organizations and Brazil.

At least this time, there was consistency in the liquidity letter auction, although it was not required. The Central Bank invested $ 172,096 million, which was insufficient to restore the deadlines and forced to issue $ 23 billion, which could be demanded by the dollar on Tuesday.

The monetary scheme is at high risk for Leliq. Their terms are taxis, which accumulate interest every seven days due to high rates. This tool depends on whether time deposits continue to grow. This is the only support, and the Central Bank is becoming increasingly complex to absorb the deadlines to keep the monetary base in the guidelines. So he doesn't want to lower the interest rate. In this case, the reduction rate was 58.25%, which is 0.20 points less than on Friday. The average collection rate decreased by 0.31 points to 57.80 percent. There is a problem during pregnancy, and the dollar turns it into a price at some point. This is a real obstacle to reducing fees. If people go out of time, the system spin. The dollar at its lowest point does not help to strengthen the monetary plan because it looks like a sleeping giant. The difference between this price and the upper band is 10%. The possibility that the currency increases part of this percentage weighs the weight.

In addition, the central bank will find it more difficult to solve these problems. The United States is not only affected, as the policy of raising tariffs on China has shown the biggest face: it increased the trade deficit with the Eastern countries by 17 percent. One of the most sympathetic sectors wakes up Donald Trumpthe car manufacturer complained about the drop in sales due to the closure of public offices and the increase in steel and aluminum tariffs increased the unit price. They warned that their profits this year will be less than expected.

Wall Street lives in this climate, and the next few days aren't promising. In fact, gold rose again by 0.20% and oil fell 1.90% to 51.60 USD. The contrast between the two goods This shows that investors see the world with less growth, which will reduce oil consumption, and therefore refuse to invest in risky and sheltered gold.

Soybeans and wheat fell by 1%, still bad news for exporters that this fall should be added to the dollar and the level of local interest rates when they appeared again.

The stock market that threatened to grow at the age of 15 – almost 1% – ended with a drop of 0.33 percent in S & P Merval. The index changed its name because it was agreed on stock exchanges and markets (Byma) and Standard and Poor's.

Wall Street Argentina's ADR was not a good time. Losses prevailed among the share holding certificates. Banco Supervielle (-2.5%) was the worst performer. Excellence was IRSA (+ 4%).

The bottom dollar of the dollar seems to be close to its end, and there are dilemmas in monetary policy.

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