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For the government, buying dollars does not cause inflation



The monetary policy that has been in place since October last year, with peso drying, is trying to reduce inflation. In this respect, there is a goal of expanding the monetary base. However, in January, dollar purchases made by the Central Bank in the US $ 510 million in the evening led to the introduction of some pesos: they were $ 19.021 million.

The amount is less than the limit set by the monetary authority itself. But when the dollar began to emerge, the discussion of economists began with the question whether dollar purchases were inflationary or not.

From the point of view of the government, it is not, according to the source of the Central Bank. "I would say that this is not in the context of Argentina, which prevents shocks that can ultimately lose the growth of inflation. We want to go slowly but confirming the pace," he explained.

Speaking of the discussion of economists, he pointed out that there was a lack of costs in all decisions. "The question is to choose what is considered cheaper for the economy and society if the BCRA did not intervene in the foreign exchange market, the peso would like," the source says.


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"Because the economy is an important price, it should help to reduce inflation faster, but Argentina has a huge inertia that makes this path a true peso assessment. The past did not allow this mechanism to work, and worse, it was confirmed that the evaluation was only temporary , creating a new source of inflation stemming from further exchange rate adjustments, ”he described.

"We choose that the exchange rate recognizes the inertia of inflation in order to avoid strong real value and strong negative impact on the economy and most likely the next source of instability," said the Central Bank.

Guido Lorenzo, LCG, makes the program more consistent when buying dollars. "Ex ante contracts were discussed on average by 35%, which is incompatible with a policy that is so strict with monetary policy that could result in higher inflation with less activity," he said. "If this means a systematic increase in the base, it could affect expectations, but we are far from this scenario, in which case it might be better to let the currency be appreciated," he added.

Twitter was also discussed between Daniel Artana (FIEL), Carlos Rodríguez and Federico Furiase for those who say it is not inflation. The front is Andrés Neumeyer (former BCRA) and Alejandro Rodríguez from CEMA.

In this regard, he advised Alejandro Rodríguez that, when Martin Redrado was in the Center, he was in a similar situation, even though purchases of currency were higher. "Sooner or later, the real variable ends up adapting, but it has to be said that today they make little money," he said.

"Furiase," while the dollar sticks on the floor from the non-interference zone and the credit continues to cool, the question of buying dollars under the floor is not an inflation rate, it plays a demand for money. " And even thought it was "the best of all worlds" for BCRA balance. Reasons? Dollars are purchased under the floor of the non-intervention zone, net reserves are recalculated and the cash base is expanded by Leliqs, lowering the rate.


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