Tuesday , March 21 2023

Experts estimate that in 2019 inflation will fluctuate from 23% to 30%.


The National Institute for Statistics and Census (Indec) tomorrow will announce fluctuations in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, predicting a 2.5% increase in private calculations that will leave 2018 with inflation. 47.5%.

If this figure is confirmed, the annual accumulated amount will exceed 38.5% in 2014 and 40.9% in 2002, when the convertibility will be terminated, and it will be below 84% from 1991 when governments Carlos Menem.

Although the Budget Law says that this year, at the end of December, prices will rise by about 23%, the Finance Minister, Nicolás DujovneHe insisted that the government "did not plan for inflation", but stated that it was absolutely convinced that it would be lower than in 2018.

"We do not appreciate the monthly inflation; we look at the numbers and help us make decisions; we are convinced what we are doing to reduce inflation in 2019 than in 2018, and we are sure we are in the right direction to get this the result, ”said the official.

Dujovne made these statements to journalists Casa Rosada, in which he stressed that the government is pursuing a very stable, simple and credible monetary policy capable of reducing monthly inflation, and this process will continue.

"In addition, we are convinced that we do not want to insert a number; we do not have inflation targets, but monetary figures; our commitment is to achieve the goal we have for a monetary base," he added.

And he concluded: "In line with our monetary program, we are convinced that inflation will be lower, but we do not anticipate inflation."

From the private sector expert and the head of the consulting firm, who is his name Orlando Ferreresit is estimated that this year's inflation will be around 23%, which, although high, is half of 2018.

The expectations in Ecolat are less favorable. In the consultation, economists estimate that this year's price increase will increase by 30%, mainly due to the rate adjustment to be applied early this year.

The BBVA Banco Francés economists, who posted it at 29%, were close to their estimates, while the Central Bank's market waiting survey (REM) was 28.7%.

It is estimated that, in 2018, the monthly inflation acceleration process was introduced, while the economy grew by 4% in the first four months, which then led to a sharp decline in activity. due to a lack of external funding and acute drought, which mainly affected the agricultural sector.

While in the first quarter, the inflation rate was 2.3% on average and 3.2% on the second, while in the third and last four months, with a sudden depreciation of the peso, it reached 4.4%, ending 2.5% in December.

In this respect, analysts' estimates of 1.7%, calculated from IPC Online, up to 3% in the calculation of FIEL, were known in recent weeks.

On average, 2.6% of Ecolatina and CyT estimates, while Eco Go rated 2.5% and Elypsis 2.3%. (Winter)

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